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Rick -> Rick's Election Analyses -> Mar. 5, 2024

Tuesday, 2024-03-05 presidential primary election

Notes by Rick Moen

(Last updated 2024-03-13)

This election rundown will cover offices and issues votable at our precinct 3402 in West Menlo Park, California. Unless you live close by, your ballot will differ to some degree.

As always, definitive outcomes are not possible for several weeks, partly because some categories of ballots aren't counted until after Election Day (vote-by-mail received as late as three days after Election Day, provisional, and damaged). County results are due at the Secretary of State on April 2nd.

Also as always, this page includes separate "RM partisan analysis" sections for each issue/candidate, just in case you're curious what I personally think. No, I'm not lobbying to persuade, in part because that doesn't work.



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Three Semi-Closed Primaries & Three Closed Primaries

What you will be permitted to vote for (for a couple of this ballot's electoral issues) differs based on whether by Monday, Feb. 19, 2024 you are registered with membership in one of the six qualified political parties — or in none of them: Voters can register without party affiliation (popularly called "voting independent", but officially "no party preference" aka NPP).

Two items on this ballot are political-party functions, what the State of California calls "party-nominated offices": the presidential primary (for which each of the six parties has a ballot) and selection of a party's county central committee officials (for which one of the six parties has ballots). Each party sets its own rules for party-nominated offices, and can notify the state before each primary election if it will permit no-party-preference voters to participate in its presidential candidate selection. By contrast, party central committee members may be voted only by that party's registered voters. (All the other votable issues in the March 2024 election are "voter-nominated offices" run by the state of California under its "top-two primary" scheme, plus one ballot proposition.)

For the March 2024 primary, three of the six qualified parties will permit no-party-preference voters (and voters registered with a non-qualified party, which amounts to the same thing) to vote in their primary elections for President:

So, for example, Democratic Party-registered voters and no-party-preference voters may participate in the Democratic Party primary races for President. No other voters may participate.

Important: If you're a no-party-preference (NPP) voter wishing to vote for candidates in one of the above party primaries, you can bring your NPP ballot to a voting center or your county election office on Election Day and ask for a party ballot, but must specifically ask, by name, for a "crossover [party name] ballot."

For the March 2024 primary, three of the six qualified parties forbid participation by no-party-preference voters. Only voters registered with them may participate in their primary elections for President:

So, for example, Republican Party-registered voters may participate in Republican Party primary races for President. No other voters (including no-party-preference voters) may participate.



How to Check Your Voter Registration

Registration deadline is 15 calendar days before each election; in this case, Monday, Feb. 19, 2024. Some counties permit checking and correcting registration online, and California also has a statewide voter registration Web site. I would recommend checking your county information first. If you see signs of trouble or have doubts or find no information, contact your county registrar of voters immediately. Or, just visit that office in person, bringing state photo ID or passport.



Candidate Information

I've had a small epiphany: It's 2024, and our Official Voter Information Pamphlets suck.

As Senatorial candidate Jason Hanania pointed out, the state charges candidates $25 per word to include a Candidate Statement — thus over $6,000 for a full-paragraph statement, plus a $3,480 Filing Fee, thus difficulty staying under the Federal Elections Commission cap of $5,000 in campaign expenditures, exceeding which brings many expensive other requirements and a host of other ills.

All of that is unnecessary: It's 2024, we have the Web, and nobody need pay by the word. Therefore, for each candidate, I have hyperlinked the candidate Web site or best other Web resource. The Web can give you much deeper and better information than the Official Voter Information Pamphlet. Use it.



Crossover Ballots: Warning

If obliged to request & use a crossover ballot, be extremely careful how you do so, or part or all of your vote may be discarded: NPP (No Party Preference) voters are required to request by name and use such a special "crossover" ballot in order to have any say in primary presidential candidate selection, and doing so is tricky. Here are horror stories about that: [CityWatchLA] [L.A. Times]



President of the USA

(party-nominated office)

As a reminder, each state's primary election is how each party in the state selects delegates to attend the party national convention, each pledged to vote on the first ballot for one specific named candidate. Some parties, notably the Democratic Party, also send unpledged delegates ("superdelegates"). The various delegates then select that party's presidential candidate (and running mate) during its national convention, who then, in the fall, run against other parties' presidential slates in the general election.


Democratic Party ballot (open to Democratic and no-party-preference voters):

(vote for one)

On Feb. 23, Secretary of State Weber also certified these Democratic Party write-in candidates as qualified:

California's Democratic Party awards 424 pledged delegates, 10.4% of the total pledged delegates available nationwide. 277 are awarded based on voting in the 53 Congressional districts, to candidates who satisfy a 15% vote threshold in the relevant district. 147 are awarded based on statewide vote tallies (for candidates who satisfy the same 15% vote threshold statewide). Of those, 92 will be pledged at-large delegates, and 55 will be pledged PLEO meaning party leader or elected official delegates. In addition, 70 unpledged PLEO "superdelegates" will be elected by district-level delegates at the May 2024 Statewide Delegation Meeting, comprising 29 DNC members, 38 members of the US House of Representatives, 2 US Senators, and 1 state governor. The total number of California delegates to the 2024 Democratic Party nominating convention, August 19-22 in Chicago, will thus be 424 + 70 = 494.

My household's Congressional district, District 18, is allocated 6 "district-level" pledged delegates plus 1 PLEO pledged delegate.

Pledged delegates get allocated (statewide and per-district), after full state totals are available, among candidates clearing the 15% vote threshold according to a very specific method specified by the party.

Political scientist Josh Putnam has clarified (after careful reading of the Democratic Party rules) what happens to delegates pledged to candidates who drop out before the convention: District delegates of such candidates will become free agents, while the delegate slots of statewide delegate awards to candidates who've dropped out will be reallocated to remaining qualified candidates (those who cleared the 15% vote threshold).

As a Democratic-registered voter (or no-party-preference voter voting a Democratic ballot), your vote will help determine allocation of pledged delegates in your Congressional district, and allocation of pledged statewide delegates, among the qualified candidates. At the convention, the mix of pledged delegates will make some candidates' factions stronger than others, and influence the party platform, even if your preferred candidate doesn't win outright. The strength of delegate balances would also matter in the event of a brokered convention.

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: Even if I disliked Biden and didn't approve of the masterful way he's balanced our foreign commitments, continued the COVID work, boosted the ongoing reindustrialization of America, and stimulated the best economy in decades, the alternative is a traitorous, morally depraved crimelord who wants to be dictator to evade prison. Easy choice. I'm voting for Biden.

Outcome: The state's 424 pledged delegates to be awarded will divide as follows: All to Biden.



Republican Party ballot (open to Republican voters only):

(vote for one)

On Feb. 23, Secretary of State Weber also certified these Republican Party write-in candidates as qualified:

California's Republican Party awards all the state's 169 delegates (6.7% of those available nationwide) as pledged delegates bound to vote (on the first ballot at the Republican convention. 10 delegates are awarded based on the plurality of the statewide vote, and three delegates are awarded for each of the 53 Congressional districts based on the plurality vote in that district. Starting 2024, however, if any candidate gets 50%+ of the votes statewide, that candidate will get all 169 delegates. Breakdown: 53 * 3 = 159 district level delegates. 159 district-level delegates + 10 at-large delegates = 169 total.

As a Republican-registered voter, your vote isn't likely to tip the plurality vote balance either statewide or in your Congressional district (most Congressional districts), but who knows? Odd things happen. At the convention (July 15-18 in Milwaukee), the mix of pledged delegates will make some candidates' factions stronger than others, and influence the party platform, even if your preferred candidate doesn't win outright. The strength of delegate balances would also matter in the event of a brokered convention.

Outcome: California's GOP awarded all 169 pledged delegates to Трамп Trump.



American Independent Party ballot (open to American Independent and no-party-preference voters):

(vote for one)

On Feb. 23, Secretary of State Weber also certified these AIP write-in candidates as qualified:

There's vanishingly little published online about the 2024 doings of this alleged political party, not even at its Web site in Vacaville, except a repeat of the Vacaville people's 2016 homily about how great the Трамп Trump ticket is, though presumably dropping the previous praise for Mike Pence. (For more about this crackpot not-really-a-political-party, please see my 2018 explanation.)

Outcome: Preliminary March 12, 2024 count: 100% (40,290 votes) for Bradley.

It's unclear what the long-term consequence of those rankings will be, whether the alleged party will hold a nominating convention, and how any such nominating convention would pick a nominee. (Recent years' history suggests no convention, and nomination ex-cathedra by the tiny group that controls the "brand".)



Green Party ballot (open to Green voters only):

(vote for one)

On Feb. 23, Secretary of State Weber also certified these Green Party write-in candidates as qualified:

Outcome: Preliminary March 12, 2024 count: 100% (12,856 votes) for Stein.

420 total delegates (including 43 for California) will be elected for and vote at the Green National Convention, to be held online July 11-14, 2024. A simple majority of 211 wins.



Libertarian Party ballot (open to Libertarian and no-party-preference voters):

(vote for one)

On Feb. 23, Secretary of State Weber also certified this Libertarian Party candidate as qualified:

The Libertarian primaries and caucuses don't appoint delegates directly, but rather indicates states' non-binding preferences for the nominee to be selected at the Libertarian National Convention, May 24-26, 2024, in Washington, DC.

Outcome: Preliminary March 12, 2024 count: 100% (19,043 votes) for Ballay.

.

Peace & Freedom Party ballot (open to Peace & Freedom voters only):

(vote for one)

There were no certified candidates for this party.

Outcome: Preliminary March 12, 2024 count: 47.1% (5,273 votes) for de la Cruz, 39.6% (4,433 votes) for West, 13.3% (1,491 votes) for Sherman.

.

For this election cycle, the three candidates were selected, I guess?, by the party appartchiks, and I note the announcement that P & F's primary election will be advisory, and that "the nominee of the party is chosen in August by the state central committee". (Note that this party has had no ballot presence outside California for many years.)



Vice-President of the USA

(party-nominated office)

In case you're wondering how you vote in the primary election for Vice-President: You don't.

Underlining the basic fact that primary elections are functions of the self-governing private political associations called "political parties", you as voter have not even an indirect say in "your" party's VP pick, even less than you have for its Presidential candidate. The VP candidate gets selected at the party's nominating convention by the selected Presidential nominee and (in theory) the attending delegates.



Members of the Parties' County Central Committees, San Mateo County's 3rd District - coastside, Redwood Shores, San Carlos, West Menlo)

(party-nominated office)



Democratic Party ballot (open to Democratic voters only):

(vote for no more than six)

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: Based on their endorsements and public statements, I voted for Levinson, Vargas, Moise, Wolter, Sanchez de Alba, and Rak.

Outcome: Preliminary March 11, 2024 totals:



Republican Party ballot (open to Republican voters only):

(vote for no more than six)

(For 2024, this will not be a votable choice because there were fewer qualified candidates than seats. I've nonetheless listed the names above so GOP 3rd District voters will know who their incoming committee members will be.)



Green Party ballot (open to Green Party voters only):

(vote for no more than seven)

(For 2024, this will not be a votable choice because there were fewer qualified candidates than seats. I've nonetheless listed the names above so Green Party 3rd District voters will know who their incoming committee members will be.)

The other qualified parties (AIP, Libertarian, Peace & Freedom) appear to not have County Central Committees in California, or at least not with contested elections.



US Senator, Full Term

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2024-11-05 general election)
(vote for one)

There are two U.S. Senate contests on this ballot. This one is for the regular 6-year term ending Jan. 3, 2031.

On Feb. 23, Secretary of State Weber also certified these write-in candidates as qualified:

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: Schiff being the leader, the tactical question is who will get the vital second of the top-two slots, Lee, Porter, or Republican stalking-horse and political neophyte (and retired Dodgers first-baseman) Garvey, who was promoted by Schiff as his preferred (more-beatable) opponent for November. As I'd like to edge celebrity Garvey out, and very much like her style, I voted for Porter.

Outcome (March 12, 2024 preliminary data):

I have to hand it to Schiff. The man knows how to apply game theory and pick his general-election opponent.



US Senator, Partial/Unexpired Term

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2024-11-05 general election)
(vote for one)

There are two U.S. Senate contests on this ballot. This one is for the remainder of the current term ending Jan. 3, 2025.

On Feb. 23, Secretary of State Weber also certified this write-in candidate as qualified.

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: Schiff being the leader, the tactical question is who will get the vital second of the top-two slots, Lee, Porter, or Republican stalking-horse and political neophyte (and retired Dodgers first-baseman) Garvey, who was promoted by Schiff as his preferred (more-beatable) opponent for November. As I'd like to edge celebrity Garvey out, and very much like her style, I voted for Porter.

Outcome (March 12, 2024 preliminary data):

I have to hand it to Schiff. The man knows how to apply game theory and pick his general-election opponent.



16th Congressional District - southwest San Mateo County

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2024-11-05 general election)
(vote for one)

There were no certified write-in candidates for this seat.

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: The standout candidate in this election was Sam Liccardo, who did an impressive job as mayor of San Jose. The conventional, establishment candidate is Joe Simitain. Peter Ohtaki I continue to respect (see prior writeups). Rishi Kumar has had problematic incidents, about which again see prior writeups. I voted for Liccardo.

Outcome (March 12, 2024 preliminary data):



State Senator, 13th District - San Mateo County south of San Bruno Mountain

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2024-11-05 general election)
(vote for one)

There were no certified write-in candidates for this seat.

RM partisan analysis: I've been quite happy with Josh Becker, generally. Glew has a long history in these elections in which I've been profoundly unimpressed. See for example my Nov. 2018 election comments. Ms. Laskowski frankly I don't know well. I voted for Becker.

Coverage:

Outcome (March 12, 2024 preliminary data):



State Assembly Member, 23rd District - Menlo Park, East Palo Alto, Portola Valley, Woodside, and most of coastside San Mateo County

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2024-11-05 general election)
(vote for one)

There were no certified write-in candidates for this seat.

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: I've been generally quite happy with Berman, though I also respect Kou. I voted for Berman.

Outcome (March 12, 2024 preliminary data):



San Mateo County Superior Court Judge, Office #4

(vote for one)

There were no certified write-in candidates for this seat.

RM partisan analysis: As I see nothing wrong with her, I'm voting for Burdick.

Outcome: (March 11, 2024 preliminary data): 100% for Burdick



Statewide Measures

Proposition 1

(requires majority voter approval statewide)

Authorizes $6.38 Billion in Bonds to Build Mental Health Treatment Facilities for Those with Mental Health and Substance Use Challenges; Provides Housing for the Homeless. Legislative Statute.

Bill text.
Legislative Analyst's summary.

Legislative Analyst's Summary Estimate of Net State and Local Government Fiscal Impact:

Legislative Analyst says that about $30 billion of already approved bonds have not yet been sold, and Debt-Service Ratio (DSR) is currently about 3% on an existing $80 billion in bonds already outstanding. This bond would add about 0.5% more to DSR for 30 years.

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: Pending. It's complicated. But I ended up voting "yes".

Outcome (March 12, 2024 preliminary data):



Additional Resources

Lifehacker article: "How to Quickly Research All Your Local Elections"

Fair Political Practices Commission has contributor records that help follow the money trail.

Followers of these pages will note that I always heed Pete Stahl's analyses (of statewide propositions), League of Women Voters of CA (a highly respected non-partisan voter education organization), Ballotpedia (a project of nonprofit Lucy Burns Institute of Wisconsin), CalMatters (an independent journalism venture run as a nonprofit out of Sac'to), Voter's Edge (whose California pages are a joint project of League of Women Voters of California Education Fund and Berkeley nonprofit MapLight that studies and tracks the influence of money on politics in the United States), Vote Smart (a non-profit, non-partisan research organization), Politifact (a fact-checking site run by non-profit journalism school Poynter Institute), ProPublica (an NYC journalism nonprofit project), and the greater or lesser wisdom of hard-working newspaper staffs.

Peter Xu's SFEndorsements site collects endorsements and voter guides during each election season for all San Francisco local, California state, and national candidates and measures.

Left Coast Right Watch is of course partisan, but eagle-eyed about some candidates' involvement with political extremism.

Supreme Court of California Blog (SCOCAblog) has astute coverage of legal issues about voting and related matters.

I also strongly recommend skim-reading Ballotpedia's Laws governing the initiative process in California page and making sure one understands it, prior to evaluating statewide propositions. Parts of it are highly relevant to proposition tactics (e.g., competing propositions on the same topic, legislative alteration) and other vital concerns.

True California-politics professionals subscribe to California Target Book, a comprehensive non-partisan effort to study state districts and political races. (I am not that obsessive.)

1 All write-in aka "independent" candidates, like other candidates, must be qualified by California's Secretary of State for state-level and Congressional offices, or by county election offices for local offices. All polling places and Voting Centers are required to have a list of qualified write-in candidates.