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Rick -> Rick's Election Analyses -> Nov. 6, 2018

Tuesday, 2018-06-03 primary election

Notes by Rick Moen

(Last updated 2019-10-30)

(Amended to merge two e-mails, one before and one just after the election. This election write-up was one of my most perfunctory ones, sorry.)

This election rundown will cover offices and issues votable at our precinct 3402 in West Menlo Park, California. Unless you live close by, your ballot will differ to some degree.

As always, definitive outcomes are not possible for several weeks, partly because some categories of ballots aren't counted until after Election Day (vote-by-mail/absentee, early-voting, provisional, and damaged).



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Federal Offices

U.S. 18th Congressional District

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2014-11-03 general election)
(vote for one)

Note: Before redistricting following the 2010 census, we were in the 14th District, represented by Jackie Speier.

RM partisan analysis: I recommend Anna Eshoo.

Outcome: Eshoo got 68%, Fox 23% 23%, the other two greatly lower. The top two advance to the November general election.



Statewide Offices

Governor

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2014-11-03 general election)
(vote for one)

RM partisan analysis: I recommend Edmund G. 'Jerry, but Mike Royko called him Governor Moonbeam' Brown.

Outcome: Brown moves on from CA's new 'top-two' primary to the Nov. general election (shocker!) along with Rethuglican candidate Neel Kashkari. Margin was 54% to 19%.

The 'top two' rule applies to all statewide offices, the House of Representatives, and the state Assembly and state Senate. It will not apply to county/local/special district elections.



Lt. Governor

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2018-11-06 general election)
(vote for one)

RM partisan analysis: I recommend Gavin 'one of Rick's favourite people on this planet' Newsom.

Kashkari (runing for Gov.) and Nehring (running for Lt. Gov.) seem to be Rethuglican cannon fodder. Kashari is a commercial banking bandit who worked under Paulson at Treasury, running the TARP project. Nehring is a Rethuglican apparatchik. Seems like the Rethuglicans have written off November chances for those seats, running only redshirts for them.

Outcome: Newsom will runoff against Ron Nehring in Nov.

Secretary of State

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2018-11-06 general election)
(vote for one)

RM partisan analysis: I recommend Derek Cressman (He's underdog to Alex Padilla.

Too bad We can't keep Debra Bowen (D), who's been terrific - but she's termed out. I recommend Derek Cressman, the Democratic Party underdog and clean-government candidate.

Outcome: I lose: Predictably, he will not be moving on to November. Alex Padilla (D) got 30%; Pete Peterson (R) got 30%.



Controller

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2014-11-03 general election)
(vote for one)


Controller:  I recommend Betty T. Yee (D) of San Francisco, the
quietly-effective no-bullshit candidate.  

Outcome:  Wow, this might be that rara avis, the election too close to
call at this time:

Ashley Swearengin (R): 24.4%
John A. Perez (D):     21.7%
David Evans (R):       21.6%
Betty T. Yee (D):      21.4%

When the returns are all in, whoever then has the top two percentages
will move on to the November ballot.  (Swearengin is a highly regarded
moderate Republican who's been effective as mayor of Fresno.)


Treasurer: I recommend John Chiang (D).  He lead with 55%, and will
runoff in Nov. against Greg Conlon (R), who got 39%.


Attorney General:  I recommend re-electing Kamala D. Harris (D).  

Outcome:  She lead with 53%, and will runoff against Ronald Gold (R) in
Nov., who got 13%, unless Phil Wyman, who got 12%, moves ahead as
ballots get counted.  (Tragically, Orly Taitz's candidacy ends with the
primary.  I blame society.)


Insurance Commissioner:  I recommend Dave Jones (D).

Outcome:  Jones lead with 53%, and will runoff against Ted Gaines (R),
who got 42%.


Member, State Board of Equalization, 2nd District:  I recommend Fiona
Ma (D).  

Outcome:  She got 72%.  James E. Theis (R) got 28%.  They move on to Nov.




24th Assembly District: I recommended incumbent Rich Gordon.

Outcome:  Gordon got 63%, and will runoff against Diane Gabl (R), 29%.


Comment:  The 'top two' primary system is intends to help curb partisan
gridlock and help moderate candidates.  This is the first statewide
election it's been applied to, and so far it still seems to be producing
D. vs. R slugfests for the general election.



Judge of the Superior Court, Office #4
Susan L. Greenberg
endorsed by Anna Schoo and Jackie Speier
http://www.mercurynews.com/peninsula/ci_25847650/five-candidates-vie-two-open-seats-san-mateo

Outcome:  I recommended Susan L. Greenberg.  WIll wonders never cease?
She won by 3:1.


Judge of the Superior Court, Office #6
Stephaie Garratt, because of this reasoning:
http://www.smdailyjournal.com/articles/opinions/2014-05-14/editorial-garratt-for-superior-court-judge/1776425123144.html
Even thought Speier endorses her competitor Ray Buenaventura

Outcome:  I recommended Stephanie Garratt.  Again
she won by 2:1.  I am giddy with unaccustomed success.


Sup. of Public Instruction:  I recommend incumbent Tom Torlakson (D),

Outcome:  Torlakson lead with 50%, and will runoff against Marshall Tuck,
who got 29%.



County Superintendent of Schools
no preference

Outcome: Unopposed candidate won.


Member, Board of Supervisors, 3rd Supervisorial District
Don Horsley

Outcome:  I recommended Don Horsley, who won 3:1.


Assessor - County Clerk - Recorder
Mark Church

Outcome:  I recommended incumbent Frank Church
over cranky no-hoper John K. Mooney.  Landslide for Church.


County Controller
I'm leaning  towards voting for Raigoza on grounds that Galligan has
been behaving like a schmuck.
http://www.mercurynews.com/peninsula/ci_25735090/sparks-continue-fly-race-san-mate-county-controller

Outcome:  I recommended challenger Juan Raigoza mostly because
Joe Gailligan had run such a dirty campaign and there's nothing wrong
with Roigoza's qualifications.  Voters picked Roigaoza 2:1.


County Coroner
no preference

Outcome: Unopposed candidate won.


County District Attoreney
no preference

Outcome: Unopposed candidate won.


Sheriff
no preference

Outcome: Unopposed candidate won.


County Treasurer - Tax Collector
no preference

Outcome: Unopposed candidate won.



State Prop 41: $600M bonds for veteran housing

NO.  I feel like the Grinch saying this, but helping veterans out is not
a state-level issue, and the state has problems with bonded indebtedness
already.

Outcome:  I admitted feeling like the Grinch in voting no, on the grounds
that this isn't a state issue and the bond service ratio remains too
high.  Voters approved these bond, 65% to 35%.


State Prop 42: Constitutional amendment: Requires local government
compliance with laws providing for public access to local government
body meetings and records of government officials.  Eliminates state
reimbursement to local governments for the costs of compliance.

NO.  Although greater transparency is good, this measure is mostly a
huge cost-shift onto local governments, who are already starved.

Outcome:  I agreed with Gavin Newsom's analysis that we need
to bite the bullet on local expenses and pass this state constitutional
amendment.  Voters approved it, 61% to 39%.


Local Sequoia Union High School District Measure A:  $265M bonds to
rebuild infrastructure.

YES because of rising enrollment and deferred work
http://www.smdailyjournal.com/articles/opinions/2014-05-28/editorial-yes-on-measure-a/1776425123913.html

Outcome:  I recommended yes.  Won by 2:1.


Local Midpeninsula Regional Open Space District measure AA:  $300M bonds
to build more trails and such.

YES.  Background:
http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_25828307/bay-area-voters-consider-300m-bond-measure-open

Outcome: I recommended yes.  Won by 2:1.