[conspire] Correction

[Texx]

Fauci was back today.

I will take Ricks word for it on the CA lockdown.
I was under the understanding that the CA order was a mirror or the bay
area and ended same.
Again I will take Ricks word for it that this is not the case.

Regarding the math thing, there are parts ofd the world that we are looking
at a geometric rise fast that will decimate some portions of the world.

I was going to give CA the benefit of the doubt that we MIGHT escape such a
rapid rise.
That has changed in the last couple hrs.

CA has now passed WA and our increase is no longer linear.
Based on whats been reported, WAs is still linear.

Reporting undercounts noted.
Besides the scarcity of testing kits, we also have a number of people who
have such mild symptoms, they are staying at home, toughing it out and not
seeking medical help.
I know a few in san Mateo County who are doing just that and they have seen
their symptoms peak without needing MD help.
These people are not being counted and rthis both results in undercount and
tilts the
reported numbers to look more fatal,

Until this afternoon, I really believed CA might scrape by and show the
rest of the US how its done.
Im giving up.  I guess we really WILL do the geometric thing.

Well, isnt that just DANDY?







On Tue, Mar 24, 2020 at 2:33 PM Rick Moen <rick at linuxmafia.com> wrote:

> Quoting Texx (texxgadget at gmail.com):
>
> > You keep telling me to read the article and I did.
> > Im just not convinced that it is the "be all end all" on the subject,
> > however.
>
> Nobody claimed so.  It was just competent, relevant, timely, and
> layman-accessible.
>
> > Its not false, I just dont swallow the whole thing hook line and sinker.
>
> Oh, go on, then?
>
> > I find it interesting that for the last few days NT has been going up by
> 5k
> > per day.
> > New Jersey has a curve thats heading that way.
> >
> > Meanwhile, the published (and I agree undercounted) rates for CA & WA
> seem
> > to be running linear for most of the last week at 2-300 per day.
>
> {sigh}  There are at least four or five reasons to worry about how
> those confirmed case rates correlated with reality, and whether the
> disparity differs from place to place.  Don't you get that?
>
> We aren't going to be certain how this is going until we see how the
> ICUs & staff weather the next few weeks.
>
> > Regarding Ricks bet, I give it 50% it gets reinstated a week or two later
> > when the numbers start to rise again here.
>
> Not the bet I offered -- and also, you're being vague.
>
> In retrospect, also, what you said upthread didn't make sense, because
> although the six counties' shelter-in-place order has a nominal
> (initial) expiration date of April 7th, the concurrent statewide order,
> saying approximatedly the same thing, has no stated end date.  And I
> mentioned all of this upthread, which should have helped you if you're
> not really from California and newly arrived from Mars.
>
> > I may have been premature about Fauci.
> > Stories are coming out that Trump is getting increasingly frustrated at
> > Fauci contradicting him, and Fauci has been missing for the last 2
> > briefings.
>
> Sure, reportedly because Kushner(!) tells the Toddler wacky stories he
> prefers over Fauci's unvarnished but polite scientific truth.  But
> you'll notice the Toddler is making no move to fire Fauci or remove him
> from the taskforce, just moving him out of the press conferences.
>
>
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-- 

R "Texx" Woodworth
Sysadmin, E-Postmaster, IT Molewhacker
"Face down, 9 edge 1st, roadkill on the information superdata highway..."
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