<div dir="ltr">Fauci was back today.<div><br></div><div>I will take Ricks word for it on the CA lockdown.</div><div>I was under the understanding that the CA order was a mirror or the bay area and ended same.</div><div>Again I will take Ricks word for it that this is not the case.</div><div><br></div><div>Regarding the math thing, there are parts ofd the world that we are looking at a geometric rise fast that will decimate some portions of the world.</div><div><br></div><div>I was going to give CA the benefit of the doubt that we MIGHT escape such a rapid rise.</div><div>That has changed in the last couple hrs.</div><div><br></div><div>CA has now passed WA and our increase is no longer linear.</div><div>Based on whats been reported, WAs is still linear.</div><div><br></div><div>Reporting undercounts noted.</div><div>Besides the scarcity of testing kits, we also have a number of people who have such mild symptoms, they are staying at home, toughing it out and not seeking medical help.</div><div>I know a few in san Mateo County who are doing just that and they have seen their symptoms peak without needing MD help.</div><div>These people are not being counted and rthis both results in undercount and tilts the </div><div>reported numbers to look more fatal,</div><div><br></div><div>Until this afternoon, I really believed CA might scrape by and show the rest of the US how its done.</div><div>Im giving up. I guess we really WILL do the geometric thing.</div><div><br></div><div>Well, isnt that just DANDY?</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Tue, Mar 24, 2020 at 2:33 PM Rick Moen <<a href="mailto:rick@linuxmafia.com">rick@linuxmafia.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">Quoting Texx (<a href="mailto:texxgadget@gmail.com" target="_blank">texxgadget@gmail.com</a>):<br>
<br>
> You keep telling me to read the article and I did.<br>
> Im just not convinced that it is the "be all end all" on the subject,<br>
> however.<br>
<br>
Nobody claimed so. It was just competent, relevant, timely, and<br>
layman-accessible.<br>
<br>
> Its not false, I just dont swallow the whole thing hook line and sinker.<br>
<br>
Oh, go on, then?<br>
<br>
> I find it interesting that for the last few days NT has been going up by 5k<br>
> per day.<br>
> New Jersey has a curve thats heading that way.<br>
> <br>
> Meanwhile, the published (and I agree undercounted) rates for CA & WA seem<br>
> to be running linear for most of the last week at 2-300 per day.<br>
<br>
{sigh} There are at least four or five reasons to worry about how <br>
those confirmed case rates correlated with reality, and whether the<br>
disparity differs from place to place. Don't you get that?<br>
<br>
We aren't going to be certain how this is going until we see how the<br>
ICUs & staff weather the next few weeks.<br>
<br>
> Regarding Ricks bet, I give it 50% it gets reinstated a week or two later<br>
> when the numbers start to rise again here.<br>
<br>
Not the bet I offered -- and also, you're being vague.<br>
<br>
In retrospect, also, what you said upthread didn't make sense, because<br>
although the six counties' shelter-in-place order has a nominal<br>
(initial) expiration date of April 7th, the concurrent statewide order,<br>
saying approximatedly the same thing, has no stated end date. And I<br>
mentioned all of this upthread, which should have helped you if you're<br>
not really from California and newly arrived from Mars.<br>
<br>
> I may have been premature about Fauci.<br>
> Stories are coming out that Trump is getting increasingly frustrated at<br>
> Fauci contradicting him, and Fauci has been missing for the last 2<br>
> briefings.<br>
<br>
Sure, reportedly because Kushner(!) tells the Toddler wacky stories he<br>
prefers over Fauci's unvarnished but polite scientific truth. But<br>
you'll notice the Toddler is making no move to fire Fauci or remove him<br>
from the taskforce, just moving him out of the press conferences.<br>
<br>
<br>
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</blockquote></div><br clear="all"><div><br></div>-- <br><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature"><br>R "Texx" Woodworth<br>Sysadmin, E-Postmaster, IT Molewhacker<br>"Face down, 9 edge 1st, roadkill on the information superdata highway..."<br></div>