[conspire] Correction

Tue Mar 24 12:50:55 PDT 2020

At least part of the undercount are the people with very light symptoms who
never get tested and in many cases dont even see a Dr.
Statistically, this will make the fatality curve look worse.

You keep telling me to read the article and I did.
Im just not convinced that it is the "be all end all" on the subject,
however.
Its not false, I just dont swallow the whole thing hook line and sinker.

I find it interesting that for the last few days NT has been going up by 5k
per day.
New Jersey has a curve thats heading that way.

Meanwhile, the published (and I agree undercounted) rates for CA & WA seem
to be running linear for most of the last week at 2-300 per day.

Regarding Ricks bet, I give it 50% it gets reinstated a week or two later
when the numbers start to rise again here.

I do see a positive out of this whole thing.
If you look at the Trump supporter demographic, they tend to be the same
demographic that will get savaged by this thing.

A while back Rick took a swipe at "Bo Jo".
I havent had a chance to send a virtual "high five" on that one.  I really
do love that nick name.

Im wondering how long its going to take for the Trumpfolk to come around to
Obamacare, now that they need it.

I may have been premature about Fauci.
Stories are coming out that Trump is getting increasingly frustrated at
Fauci contradicting him, and Fauci has been missing for the last 2
briefings.
This will be interesting to watch.

My Dad says "America loves a good train wreck!"

On Tue, Mar 24, 2020 at 12:54 AM Rick Moen <rick at linuxmafia.com> wrote:

> Quoting Texx (texxgadget at gmail.com):
>
> > Im seeing some huge disagreements on the numbers which shakes my
> confidence
> > in any of the numbers.
> > One of the graphics on the news seems to be off by 1000 for CA & WA (did
> > they miss last nights updates?
> > I believe the 2300 number over the 1900 number.
>
> {sigh}
>
> It's really rather academic whether the confirmed case number is 1900 or
> 2300 or 3800, etc.  The point is:
>
> o  exponential growth, and
> o  the true number of cases being many times the confirmed case number, and
> o  the sharpness of the curve (absent strong 'flattening' measures)
>    posing the terrible risk of overwhelming the medical system
>
> Harvard researchers have arrived at a rule of thumb that, in pretty much
> any given location inthe USA, you can multiply the confirmed case number
> by 50, and that'll probably be a reasonable ballpark estimate of the
> true number.  (This attempts to estimate the large surrounding number
> of undetected but real cases, taking into account the almost unavailable
> nature of testing, stil.)
>
> Meanwhile, the best estimates I've been hearing of the doubling time is
> about three days (absent effective suppression techniques such as
> consistent social distancing and the rest).
>
> Exponential.  Growth.
> Three.  Days.
>
> Concentrate on that.  And on the fact that reported confirmed case
> numbers are _inherently_ a drastic undercount.
>
>
> > Back to the math:
> > CA seems to have only gone up 300 in 24 hrs.
>
> This is of course a drastic undercount.
>
> > Lockdown ends in 2 weeks.
>
> _Want to bet?_
>
> Seriously, I have a buck here.  Got one to stake against it?
>
>
> > Based on that, I dont see CA hitting 40k cases in that time.
> > Thats a good thing.
>
> You are _still_ not grappling with the math.
>
> Yesterday, there were 2,181 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in California.
> (This is a total by the S.J. Mercury News of figures from county public
> health departments.)  _Confirmed_ cases.  If you trust to the Harvard
> researchers' guesstimating technique, and, for the sake of current
> discussion I do, then the true case count would be about 50 * 2,181  or
> at bit over 100,000 cases.
>
> For the sake of discussion, imagine that health guidelines, e.g., social
> distancing, CDC-type hand washing, shutting down non-essential
> businesses, avoiding non-essential activities, are being widely ignored.
> Then, the total true case count statewide would tend to follow this
> approximate trajectory:
>
> 3/26:    200,000
> 3/29:    400,000
> 4/01:    800,000
> 4/04:  1,600,000
> 4/07:  3,200,000
> 4/08:  6,400,000
> 4/11: 12,800,000
> 4/14: 24,000,000
> 4/17: At this point, you've saturated the state population.
>       (Numbers will fall within the week as about half a million die.)
>
> The hope (and, I keep saying, see the Imperial College London report
> about this) is that a 'suppression' strategy, applied maybe 2 months
> on and one month off until something better gets found, will avert the
> exponential explosion.
>
> When I said you were failing to grapple with the math, I _didn't_ mean
> 'Texx didn't look up official confirmed case numbers'.  I meant the
> _math_.  E.g., not seeing what exponential growth does, here.
>
> You could also look up what is California's ICU capacity and in
> particular the current number of usable mechanical ventilators (not
> counting ones vaguely promised to become available Real Soon Now),
> which is a hard limit that, if the number of real (as opposed to
> 'confirmed') cases rises too high, the significant percentage needing
> help with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome will basically just die
> (of suffocation), either at home or in hospital corridors, to the extent
> they exceed hospital capacity.
>
> You could calculate that.  (The percent of ARDS patients can be
> estimated from public information.)  I'm not going to walk you through
> it.  I have a lot of other things to do.
>
>
> > What happens after that?
> > Do we loosen up for a week and then lockdown for another 3 weeks?
>
> _Dude._  Read the Imperial College London report, particularly pp. 11-13.
>
> > I just dont see people in the US complying with a longer lockdown.
>
> OK, sure.  Megadeaths are always a possibility.
>
>
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-- 

R "Texx" Woodworth
Sysadmin, E-Postmaster, IT Molewhacker
"Face down, 9 edge 1st, roadkill on the information superdata highway..."
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