<div dir="ltr">At least part of the undercount are the people with very light symptoms who never get tested and in many cases dont even see a Dr.<div>Statistically, this will make the fatality curve look worse.</div><div><br></div><div>You keep telling me to read the article and I did.</div><div>Im just not convinced that it is the "be all end all" on the subject, however.</div><div>Its not false, I just dont swallow the whole thing hook line and sinker.</div><div><br></div><div>I find it interesting that for the last few days NT has been going up by 5k per day.</div><div>New Jersey has a curve thats heading that way.</div><div><br></div><div>Meanwhile, the published (and I agree undercounted) rates for CA & WA seem to be running linear for most of the last week at 2-300 per day.</div><div><br></div><div>Regarding Ricks bet, I give it 50% it gets reinstated a week or two later when the numbers start to rise again here.</div><div><br></div><div>I do see a positive out of this whole thing.</div><div>If you look at the Trump supporter demographic, they tend to be the same demographic that will get savaged by this thing.</div><div><br></div><div>A while back Rick took a swipe at "Bo Jo".</div><div>I havent had a chance to send a virtual "high five" on that one. I really do love that nick name.</div><div><br></div><div>Im wondering how long its going to take for the Trumpfolk to come around to Obamacare, now that they need it.</div><div><br></div><div>I may have been premature about Fauci.</div><div>Stories are coming out that Trump is getting increasingly frustrated at Fauci contradicting him, and Fauci has been missing for the last 2 briefings.</div><div>This will be interesting to watch.</div><div><br></div><div>My Dad says "America loves a good train wreck!"</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Tue, Mar 24, 2020 at 12:54 AM Rick Moen <<a href="mailto:rick@linuxmafia.com">rick@linuxmafia.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">Quoting Texx (<a href="mailto:texxgadget@gmail.com" target="_blank">texxgadget@gmail.com</a>):<br>
<br>
> Im seeing some huge disagreements on the numbers which shakes my confidence<br>
> in any of the numbers.<br>
> One of the graphics on the news seems to be off by 1000 for CA & WA (did<br>
> they miss last nights updates?<br>
> I believe the 2300 number over the 1900 number.<br>
<br>
{sigh}<br>
<br>
It's really rather academic whether the confirmed case number is 1900 or<br>
2300 or 3800, etc. The point is:<br>
<br>
o exponential growth, and<br>
o the true number of cases being many times the confirmed case number, and<br>
o the sharpness of the curve (absent strong 'flattening' measures) <br>
posing the terrible risk of overwhelming the medical system<br>
<br>
Harvard researchers have arrived at a rule of thumb that, in pretty much<br>
any given location inthe USA, you can multiply the confirmed case number <br>
by 50, and that'll probably be a reasonable ballpark estimate of the<br>
true number. (This attempts to estimate the large surrounding number <br>
of undetected but real cases, taking into account the almost unavailable<br>
nature of testing, stil.)<br>
<br>
Meanwhile, the best estimates I've been hearing of the doubling time is<br>
about three days (absent effective suppression techniques such as <br>
consistent social distancing and the rest).<br>
<br>
Exponential. Growth.<br>
Three. Days.<br>
<br>
Concentrate on that. And on the fact that reported confirmed case<br>
numbers are _inherently_ a drastic undercount.<br>
<br>
<br>
> Back to the math:<br>
> CA seems to have only gone up 300 in 24 hrs.<br>
<br>
This is of course a drastic undercount.<br>
<br>
> Lockdown ends in 2 weeks.<br>
<br>
_Want to bet?_<br>
<br>
Seriously, I have a buck here. Got one to stake against it?<br>
<br>
<br>
> Based on that, I dont see CA hitting 40k cases in that time.<br>
> Thats a good thing.<br>
<br>
You are _still_ not grappling with the math.<br>
<br>
Yesterday, there were 2,181 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in California.<br>
(This is a total by the S.J. Mercury News of figures from county public<br>
health departments.) _Confirmed_ cases. If you trust to the Harvard<br>
researchers' guesstimating technique, and, for the sake of current<br>
discussion I do, then the true case count would be about 50 * 2,181 or <br>
at bit over 100,000 cases.<br>
<br>
For the sake of discussion, imagine that health guidelines, e.g., social<br>
distancing, CDC-type hand washing, shutting down non-essential<br>
businesses, avoiding non-essential activities, are being widely ignored. <br>
Then, the total true case count statewide would tend to follow this<br>
approximate trajectory:<br>
<br>
3/26: 200,000<br>
3/29: 400,000<br>
4/01: 800,000<br>
4/04: 1,600,000<br>
4/07: 3,200,000<br>
4/08: 6,400,000<br>
4/11: 12,800,000<br>
4/14: 24,000,000<br>
4/17: At this point, you've saturated the state population.<br>
(Numbers will fall within the week as about half a million die.)<br>
<br>
The hope (and, I keep saying, see the Imperial College London report<br>
about this) is that a 'suppression' strategy, applied maybe 2 months <br>
on and one month off until something better gets found, will avert the<br>
exponential explosion.<br>
<br>
When I said you were failing to grapple with the math, I _didn't_ mean<br>
'Texx didn't look up official confirmed case numbers'. I meant the<br>
_math_. E.g., not seeing what exponential growth does, here.<br>
<br>
You could also look up what is California's ICU capacity and in<br>
particular the current number of usable mechanical ventilators (not<br>
counting ones vaguely promised to become available Real Soon Now), <br>
which is a hard limit that, if the number of real (as opposed to<br>
'confirmed') cases rises too high, the significant percentage needing<br>
help with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome will basically just die <br>
(of suffocation), either at home or in hospital corridors, to the extent<br>
they exceed hospital capacity.<br>
<br>
You could calculate that. (The percent of ARDS patients can be <br>
estimated from public information.) I'm not going to walk you through<br>
it. I have a lot of other things to do.<br>
<br>
<br>
> What happens after that?<br>
> Do we loosen up for a week and then lockdown for another 3 weeks?<br>
<br>
_Dude._ Read the Imperial College London report, particularly pp. 11-13.<br>
<br>
> I just dont see people in the US complying with a longer lockdown.<br>
<br>
OK, sure. Megadeaths are always a possibility.<br>
<br>
<br>
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</blockquote></div><br clear="all"><div><br></div>-- <br><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature"><br>R "Texx" Woodworth<br>Sysadmin, E-Postmaster, IT Molewhacker<br>"Face down, 9 edge 1st, roadkill on the information superdata highway..."<br></div>