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Rick -> Rick's Election Analyses -> Nov. 2, 2010

Tuesday, 2010-11-02 Gubernatorial General Election

Notes by Rick Moen

Last updated 2010-11-04

Date: Tue, 2 Nov 2010 00:22:58 -0700
From: Rick Moen rick@linuxmafia.com
To: Deirdre Saoirse Moen, Cheryl Morris, Ross Bernheim, Karsten Self, Dani Renan
Subject: Election recommendations

This is my ballot. There are many others like it, but this one is mine. My ballot is my best friend....

Summary, suitable for printing or PDFing:

PARTISAN OFFICES
Governor: Jerry Brown
Lt. Governor: Gavin Newsom
Sec. of State: Debra Bowen
Controller: John Chiang
Treasurer: Bill Lockyer
Atty. General: Kamala D. Harris
Insurance Commissioner: Dave Jones
Memb., Board of Equalisation, Dist 1: Betty T. Lee
US Senator: Barbara Boxer
US Rep., 14th Congressional District: Anna G. Eshoo
Memb. State Assembly, 21st Assembly District: Rich Gordon

JUDICIAL
State Supreme Court Chief Justice: Tani G. Cantil-Sakauye: yes
State Supreme Court Assoc. Justice: Ming W. Chin: yes
State Supreme Court Assoc. Justice: Carlos R. Moreno: yes
Court of Appeal Dist 1 Div 1 Assoc. Justice: Kathleen M. Banke: yes
Court of Appeal Dist 1 Div 1 Assoc. Justice: Robert L. Dondero: yes
Court of Appeal Dist 1 Div 2 Assoc. Justice: James R. Lambden: yes
Court of Appeal Dist 1 Div 3 Assoc. Justice: Martin J. Jenkins: yes
Court of Appeal Dist 1 Div 3 Assoc. Justice: Peter J. Siggins: yes
Court of Appeal Dist 1 Div 4 Assoc. Justice: Timothy A. Reardon: yes
Court of Appeal Dist 1 Div 5 Assoc. Justice: Terence L. Bruiniers: yes
Court of Appeal Dist 1 Div 6 Assoc. Justice: Henry E. Needham, Jr.: yes

SCHOOL
Superintendent of Public Instruction: Larry Aceves
Las Lomitas Elementary School, Governing Board (vote for three):
Mark Reinstra, Richard Ginn, Jay Siegel

COUNTY
Board of Supervisors, 3rd District: Don Horsley
Treasurer-Tax Collector: Dave Mandelkern

DISTRICT
S.M. County Harbour Dist Board of Commissioners (vote for two):
Sabrina Brennan, James J. Tucker
Sequoia Healthcare Dist. Board of Directors (vote for three):
Frederick A. Graham, Michael G. Stogner, John J. "Jack" Hickey

STATE PROPOSITIONS
19 Marijuana: yes
20 Xfer redistricting Congressional dists. to commission: yes
21 Vehicle surcharge for parks/wildlife: no
22 Protect some spending against legislature: no
23 Suspend global warming laws: no
24 Elim. business tax shelters: yes
25 Budget by majority vote: yes
26 2/3 vote required for env. impact laws: no
27 Repeal the redistricting commission: no

COUNTY PROPOSITIONS
M Vehicle surcharge for local services: no
U Filing supervisor vacancies: yes

Rationales

Partisan offices: As I mentioned, this is a straight Democratic Party recommendation. I'm especially enthusiastic for Debra Bowen, running for re-election as Sec. of State. For Insurance Commissioner and State Board of Equalisation, I relied on recommendations by San Mateo Daily Journal.

Judicial offices: For most of those, I relied on recommendations by the LA Times.

School offices: For Superintendent of Public Instruction, I relied on San Mateo Daily Journal recommendations. For Las Lomitas, I relied on Palo Alto Daily News recommendations.

County offices: Again, Palo Alto Daily News.

District: For both, relied on various local newspapers. One of them ran a feature piece about how Jack Hickey's been trying to dissolve the Sequoia Healthcare District for years but has always been outvoted on the Board. This time, if he and the two others I mention are elected, it'll finally happen, as they'll have three of the five-member board on Hickey's side.

State Propositions:
(Note: I favour heightened skepticism about initiative constitutional amendments, relative to initiative statutes. The state constitution is already a train wreck, the fact that it can be amended by majority vote is a bad joke, and we need to put the brakes on the process.)

19 Marijuana:

Because the War on Some Drugs is stupid. This measure has many flaws, and some immediate probable adverse consequences, e.g., possible inability of California companies to bid on Federal contracts because they'd be barred from screening job applicants for marijuana use, but would be a powerful statement and step forward on balance. YES

20 Xfer redistricting Congressional dists. to commission:

Last election, all state redistricting was turned over to a commission for the purpose, which has put an end to gerrymandering. This constitutional amendment would turn over redistricting of Congressional districts to that same commission. YES

Note: If both prop. 20 and 27 pass, then only the one that passes by the higher margin will take effect.

21 Vehicle surcharge for parks/wildlife:

It's painful to have to say this, because I love the state parks and wildlife programmes, but this is simply the wrong way to fund state government. When, as is currently the case, the economy is way down, it's necessary for the state to cut spending. Period. Please note that, realistically, if this measure passes, the Legislature will merely cut regular funding to the state parks and wildlife programmes, and nothing in it prevents that. NO

22 Protect some spending against legislature:

This constitutional amendment would tie the Legislature's hands against delaying distribution of tax revenues, even in financial emergencies, for transportation, redevelopment, and local government projects. I always oppose constitutional amendments that tie the hands of the Legislature: If you don't like what the Legislature does, the correct remedy is to replace or recall them, not strip them of powers. NO

23 Suspend global warming laws:

Special interest legislation for dirty-energy companies, plain and simple, mostly Texas oil companies. NO

24 Elim. business tax shelters:

Ends some tax shelters for very large corporations like extended carryforward of losses, sharing tax credits with a company's affiliates, and giving multistate corps more leeway about electing the basis on which they're taxed, that were thrown into a prior budget compromise in order to get Republican votes. Predictably, various moneybags whine about this measure and threaten to leave the state, etc. YES

People who argue for a 'no' vote claim it is required for 'good faith' because it was part of a prior year's budget compromise. Say again?

25 Budget by majority vote:

This constitutional amendment ends the Legislature's budget deadlock by reducing the required margin to pass a state budget from 2/3 to majority vote. We so very, very need this: Part of the reason the Legislature punts so much essential public business to the voters is that they can't pass anything. YES

26 2/3 vote required for env. impact laws:

This constitutional amendment would require a 2/3 majority for almost all new state and local fees. Campaign heavily backed by Chevron. NO

27 Repeal the redistricting commission:

This constitutional amendment and statute is essentially special-interest legislation on behalf of the Democratic Party, because it currently has a majority in both houses of the Legislature, and would like to be able to return to gerrymandering districts, which Prop. 11 ended by setting up the redistricting commission. Ending gerrymandering is not only fairer to everyone, including the Democratic Party next time it's in the minority, but also will help end partisan gridlock by preventing keeping 'safe' seats for extremists and creating more opportunity for moderates of both parties. NO.

Note: If both prop. 20 and 27 pass, then only the one that passes by the higher margin will take effect.

County Propositions:

M Vehicle surcharge for local services: As with state prop. 21, this is simply the wrong way to fund government. NO

Filing supervisor vacancies: This is a technical measure to fill Supervisor vacancies more quickly and with less expense to voters. YES

Date: Thu, 4 Nov 2010 01:55:26 -0700
From: Rick Moen rick@linuxmafia.com
To: Deirdre Saoirse Moen, Cheryl Morris, Ross Bernheim, Karsten Self, Dani Renan
Subject: Re: Election recommendations

Here's how we did.

> PARTISAN OFFICES
> Governor: Jerry Brown
> Lt. Governor: Gavin Newsom
> Sec. of State: Debra Bowen
> Controller: John Chiang
> Treasurer: Bill Lockyer
> Atty. General: Kamala D. Harris
> Insurance Commissioner: Dave Jones
> Memb., Board of Equalisation, Dist 1: Betty T. Lee
> US Senator: Barbara Boxer
> US Rep., 14th Congressional District: Anna G. Eshoo
> Memb. State Assembly, 21st Assembly District: Rich Gordon

All of them won (i.e., all Democrats on the statewide ballot we had here in Menlo Park defeated their opponents).

> JUDICIAL
> State Supreme Court Chief Justice: Tani G. Cantil-Sakauye: yes
> State Supreme Court Assoc. Justice: Ming W. Chin: yes
> State Supreme Court Assoc. Justice: Carlos R. Moreno: yes
> Court of Appeal Dist 1 Div 1 Assoc. Justice: Kathleen M. Banke: yes
> Court of Appeal Dist 1 Div 1 Assoc. Justice: Robert L. Dondero: yes
> Court of Appeal Dist 1 Div 2 Assoc. Justice: James R. Lambden: yes
> Court of Appeal Dist 1 Div 3 Assoc. Justice: Martin J. Jenkins: yes
> Court of Appeal Dist 1 Div 3 Assoc. Justice: Peter J. Siggins: yes
> Court of Appeal Dist 1 Div 4 Assoc. Justice: Timothy A. Reardon: yes
> Court of Appeal Dist 1 Div 5 Assoc. Justice: Terence L. Bruiniers: yes
> Court of Appeal Dist 1 Div 6 Assoc. Justice: Henry E. Needham, Jr.: yes

All won.

> SCHOOL
> Superintendent of Public Instruction: Larry Aceves

Lost to Tom Torlakson. In this and in the case of other candidates I recommended who lost, the winner was someone with higher public name recognition.

> Las Lomitas Elementary School, Governing Board (vote for three):
> Mark Reinstra, Richard Ginn, Jay Siegel

Reinstra lost. Winners in decreasing order of votes: Ann C. Jaquith, Jay Siegel, Richard Ginn.

> COUNTY
> Board of Supervisors, 3rd District: Don Horsley

Won.

> Treasurer-Tax Collector: Dave Mandelkern

Lost to Sandie Arnott.

> DISTRICT
> S.M. County Harbour Dist Board of Commissioners (vote for two):
> Sabrina Brennan, James J. Tucker

Brennan lost. Winners in decreasing order of votes: Robert Bernardo, James J. Tucker.

> Sequoia Healthcare Dist. Board of Directors (vote for three):
> Frederick A. Graham, Michael G. Stogner, John J. "Jack" Hickey

Alas, these assholes will perpetuate this pointless and money-wasting, obsolete district for at least another two years, when another pair of seats come up for re-election. Graham and Stogner (who would have voted with Hickey to abolish the district) lost. Winners in decreasing order of votes: Jerry Shefren, John J. "Jack" Hickey, Arthur J. Faro.

> STATE PROPOSITIONS
> 19 Marijuana: yes

Lost.

> 20 Xfer redistricting Congressional dists. to commission: yes

Won.

> 21 Vehicle surcharge for parks/wildlife: no

Lost.

> 22 Protect some spending against legislature: no

Won by almost a 2:1 margin. The idea of tying the hands of the Legislature seems to be alive and well.

> 23 Suspend global warming laws: no

Lost.

> 24 Elim. business tax shelters: yes

Lost. Apparently, the 'huge corporations will move to Arizona unless we give them huge tax concessions" argument was persuasive.

> 25 Budget by majority vote: yes

Won. Yay! Oddly enough, I think this might end up being the most important proposition of the lot, because, along with ending gerrymandering, it is key to ending the deadlock in the Legislature. Now, if only we could repeal that absurd term limits provision that got added to the California Constitution in the 1980s for the bad reason of kicking Willie Brown out of the Speaker of the Assembly seat. That provision has also done its part to polarise the Legislature by making more difficult formation of long-term working relationships across the aisle.

> 26 2/3 vote required for env. impact laws: no

Won. This is worse than I first described it, because it requires a 2/3 margin for a very wide range of state taxes and fees -- and has now been written into the state Constitution. This is another example of Californians' infantile insistence on tying the hands of the Legislature.

> 27 Repeal the redistricting commission: no

Lost. Which is a very good thing.

> COUNTY PROPOSITIONS

> M Vehicle surcharge for local services: no

Won. Each car in San Mateo County will now cost $10/year more to register -- for the next 25 years. This is, among other problems, a classic regressive tax.

> U Filing supervisor vacancies: yes

Won.