[conspire] Because people suck (or: Now Is the Winter of Our Discount Tent)

[Rick Moen]

Quoting Paul Zander (paulz at ieee.org):

>  By my calculation more people have died from COVID-19 in the last 7
>  months than all the US military deaths in all the wars in the last 70
>  years.

> Is there an update on "excess deaths"?  Which includes the people who
> couldn't get their heart disease or cancer treatment etc?

For reference, I believe Paul is indirectly referring to the Oct. 21st 
study from Columbia University, calculating that Administration
incompetence, indifference, and lying had directly caused about 210,000
_avoidable_ American pandemic deaths as of that date -- and, of course,
growing.

https://ncdp.columbia.edu/custom-content/uploads/2020/10/Avoidable-COVID-19-Deaths-US-NCDP.pdf

I'm sorry, but I don't know of any more recent calculation that was
comparably careful.  Perhaps someone else here has.  But, well, that bad
news _was_ only a month ago.

[Tests of the Pfizer and Moderna viruses:]

> Anyone know why the Pfizer vaccine needs to be kept at cryogenic
> temperatures?  

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/17/935563377/why-does-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-need-to-be-kept-colder-than-antarctica

Short summary:  It's because mRNA vaccines are so fragile, in that 
a wide variety of enzymes can break them apart.  Cold stops chemistry.

The Moderna virus, albeit likewise an mRNA vaccine, has been verified by
testing to be less fragile, reportedly on account of details of its
"lipid nanoparticle properties and structure", and because this isn't
the company's first rodeo in the mRNA field, so they've picked up some
tricks to make the product more robust.

Article above stresses that the Pfizer vaccine _may_ prove to be robust
enough to not be kept so cold, but we don't yet have enough data from
the field to know.

> My guess is that is what they were using in their research facilities
> before there was COVID-19.  So they stuck with what they knew. 

Roger that.

> IMO, if I was offered either vaccine after FDA approval, I would do
> it.  I would still keep wearing my mask until the Health Department
> issued an All Clear.

Concur.  Conveniently, _NYT's_ California Today feature just published a
piece about California's 'interim draft' rollout plan:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/23/us/covid-vaccine-ca.html
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/CDPH%20Document%20Library/COVID-19/COVID-19-Vaccination-Plan-California-Interim-Draft_V1.0.pdf

The state will have about 2 million doses a/o New Year's Eve.  Call the
current population around an even 40 million.  Phase 1, obviously, will
be health workers plus "people at risk for severe complications from the
virus and other essential workers".  Phase 1-B covers other essential
workers, and people with underlying medical conditions making them
particularly vulnerable to COVID-19, including people 65 year old and
older.  Phase 2 is essential workers now covered before, plus people in
very exposed places like skilled nursing homes.  Phase 3 is general
availability.

For obvious reasons, this is a setting out of procedures and priorities
rather than a schedule.


> So there will someday be an end to this scourge.  Estimates of March
> or May have some basis in science fact.

Strikes me as a reasonable guesstimate.  FWIW, Gov. Newsom has been
quoted as predicting wide availability in the middle of 2021.  But
what's yet undetermined are the speed and coverage of society-wide
rollout.  And don't forget that people outside First World populations
are going to get shafted yet again, in that rollout there will be _much_
delayed.