[conspire] Numbers racket

[Deirdre Saoirse Moen]

On Apr 27, 2020, at 2:25 AM, Rich Kulawiec <rsk at gsp.org> wrote:
> 
> (5 cont’d) 

> E.g., an autopsy of a Santa Clara victim (believed to be the first US
> fatality) showed that she suffered a massive heart attack:

Not just a heart *attack*, but a 2 cm x 1 cm *rupture*. So next level from a heart attack it’s not funny. :(

(Source is the autopsy linked from the article you quoted.)

>    Talking about mortality with Covid-19 is like talking about the
>    failure of Fannie Mae or AIG in 2008. Significant, but hardly
>    the whole story.

Exactly, and that assumes that there’s immunity, which we still do not know. So much of our society assumes it.

> 6. The R0 for COVID-19 is being researched/debated but LANL has a paper out
> estimating 5.7 as the median value. (Seasonal flu is about 1.3)
> 
>    High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 
>    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
> 
> That paper says their 95% CI is 3.8 to 8.9, so even if they're wrong
> enough that it's the lower bound of 3.8: that's still way more contagious.
> (Keep in mind that it is R0^N that characterizes spread through a population.)

The coalescing hypothesis that there may be some fecal-oral aspects to it may explain the high R numbers. (See my two links from a few hours ago.)

> 7. The concept of immunity (whether short-term, long-term, or permanent;
> whether neutralizing or not; whether immediate or eventual) in the
> context of COVID-19 is poorly understood at this time.

Might want to toss this lesson from the dengue wars on the link pile. Naturally, it was tested in a country of brown people where we, oops, didn’t tell them about that dengue immunity gotcha (that we don’t yet know happens with covid…or not…but it has happened in a lab).


https://www.npr.org/2019/05/02/719366831/dengue-vaccine-controversy-in-the-philippines

I need to dig up those “happened in a lab” links when I’m not on my iPad, so after I wake up.

Deirdre
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