<html><head><meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body dir="auto">On Apr 27, 2020, at 2:25 AM, Rich Kulawiec <rsk@gsp.org> wrote:<br><div dir="ltr"><blockquote type="cite"><br></blockquote></div><blockquote type="cite"><div dir="ltr">(5 cont’d) </div></blockquote><br><blockquote type="cite"><div dir="ltr"><span>E.g., an autopsy of a Santa Clara victim (believed to be the first US</span><br><span>fatality) showed that she suffered a massive heart attack:</span><br></div></blockquote><div><br></div>Not just a heart *attack*, but a 2 cm x 1 cm *rupture*. So next level from a heart attack it’s not funny. :(<div><br></div><div>(Source is the autopsy linked from the article you quoted.)<br><div><br><blockquote type="cite"><div dir="ltr"><span></span><span> Talking about mortality with Covid-19 is like talking about the</span><br><span> failure of Fannie Mae or AIG in 2008. Significant, but hardly</span><br><span> the whole story.</span><br></div></blockquote><div><br></div>Exactly, and that assumes that there’s immunity, which we still do not know. So much of our society assumes it.</div><div><br><blockquote type="cite"><div dir="ltr"><span></span><span>6. The R0 for COVID-19 is being researched/debated but LANL has a paper out</span><br><span>estimating 5.7 as the median value. (Seasonal flu is about 1.3)</span><br><span></span><br><span> High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus </span><br><span> https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article</span><br><span></span><br><span>That paper says their 95% CI is 3.8 to 8.9, so even if they're wrong</span><br><span>enough that it's the lower bound of 3.8: that's still way more contagious.</span><br><span>(Keep in mind that it is R0^N that characterizes spread through a population.)</span><br></div></blockquote><div><br></div>The coalescing hypothesis that there may be some fecal-oral aspects to it may explain the high R numbers. (See my two links from a few hours ago.)</div><div><br><blockquote type="cite"><div dir="ltr"><span></span><span>7. The concept of immunity (whether short-term, long-term, or permanent;</span><br><span>whether neutralizing or not; whether immediate or eventual) in the</span><br><span>context of COVID-19 is poorly understood at this time.</span><br></div></blockquote><div><br></div><div>Might want to toss this lesson from the dengue wars on the link pile. Naturally, it was tested in a country of brown people where we, oops, didn’t tell them about that dengue immunity gotcha (that we don’t yet know happens with covid…or not…but it has happened in a lab).</div><br><blockquote type="cite"><div dir="ltr"><span></span></div></blockquote></div></div><div><a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/05/02/719366831/dengue-vaccine-controversy-in-the-philippines">https://www.npr.org/2019/05/02/719366831/dengue-vaccine-controversy-in-the-philippines</a></div><div><br></div><div>I need to dig up those “happened in a lab” links when I’m not on my iPad, so after I wake up.</div><div><br></div><div>Deirdre</div></body></html>