[conspire] COVID-19 update Oct. 2022

[Rick Moen]

I haven't done an update in a long time, but will use this reply to a
friend, to make a start at it.

Also, if you read nothing else on the subject, please read this:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/the-next-u-s-covid-wave-is-coming-why-it-will-be-much-weirder-than-before/ar-AA12VZ6c
It's the best one-stop recap I've seen.

Some interim results showing that the bivalent booster _is_ working:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/15/omicron-covid-boosters-appear-to-work-regardless-of-side-effects.html
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2208343

----- Forwarded message from Rick Moen <rick at linuxmafia.com> -----

Date: Sun, 16 Oct 2022 11:26:16 -0700
From: Rick Moen <rick at linuxmafia.com>
To: [a cherished CABAL person, who hasn't been here in a while]
Subject: Re: Covid Certificate
Organization: If you lived here, you'd be $HOME already.

Quoting [our friend]:

> Here is a photo of my Covid certificate in hopes it is sufficient
> evidence of vaccination. I would like to be able to visit a CABAL
> gathering either tonight or another time soon. Please let me know if
> this is sufficient evidence. My paper one is somewhere here but not
> readily accessible.

More than good enough.  Thank you.

I don't want to presume, but have you considered getting the current 
("bivalent") booster, too?  To try to condense a lot of material, 
the original vaccines, such as your Pfizer one in 2001, have been proven
to give the adaptive immune system long-lasting (almost certainly
lifetime) instructions about how to recognise the pathogen.  You may
consider that good enough, and it's a position I respect.

1.  However, we learned from 2021 Israeli studies that the body's
rapid-reaction forces of neutralising antibody proteins fade over 4
months from completing a vaccine series.  4+ months out, if you are
exposed to the pathogen, your adaptive immune system's B cells recognise
it and trigger manufacture of new antibodies, the hitch being the
ramp-up time, during which (if infected) you get ill until the arriving
antibodies can mop it up.

This is why the original boosters came out, kicking the adaptive immune
system the same way as before, and stimulating a recharge of antibodies,
for another 4 months.

2.  The newer _bivalent_ booster targets the "spike" protein of Omicron
BA.4/BA.5, the current prevailing strain that does substantive immune
escape against the original vaccine/boosters.  The clinical data aren't
yet in, about how effective the fix is in real-world epidemiology, but 
it seems likely to fix the Omicron problem.

So, to recap, I wonder if you have considered getting the new booster?
I would suggest you consider it.  In the event of you being exposed, it 
seems likely to at least make the difference between getting seriously
ill and getting either the equivalent of a mild head cold or not getting
infected (and infectious) at all.  And as I'm sure you know, the general
level of risk increases as we get older.

We _may_ be heading into an Omicron BA.5-driven "surge" as the weather
turns to winter.  Not happening yet.  I'm watching the metrics closely.


I have _considered_ updating the CABAL in-person entry requirement from 
"You must be COVID-19 vaccinated.  I will check." to "You must be
current on COVID-19 boosters.  I will check."  But I'm not making this
change yet, and will give plenty of warning.

----- End forwarded message -----