[conspire] Clocks, vaccines, boosters

[Rick Moen]

Let me be the nth to tell you:  All your non-NTP clocks are probably
wrong, or about to be wrong, when you read this.


Interesting NY Times pieces -- I already mentioned this one from the end
of August:
https://milled.com/nytimes/the-morning-is-vaccine-immunity-really-waning-UVKEBnAcnBj_BA4h

That's the one that questioned the hasty conclusion, drawn mostly from 
a commendable but limited Israeli retrospective data analysis, that
boosters would be needed quickly.


Then we have this one, from mid-October, about who's really at risk of
breakthrough infections, and what that really means:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/18/health/coronavirus-vaccine-powell-breakthrough.html

tl;dr:  It's mostly an issue for the very old or those with
co-morbidities that suppress the immune system, as with the late Colin
Powell, age 84 and greatly immunocompromised by multiple myeloma and its
treatment.  Quick assessment:  Others are rendered by vaccination 1/10
as likely to be hospialised, if infected, and almost vanishingly few
will be killed if vaccinated.  


And, late last month, getting back to the first article's point, this
one details disagreement among expert advisors to FDA and CDC about who
does and doesn't need boosters:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/25/health/covid-boosters-cdc-fda.html
One gets the impression of institutional politics at work, driving 
FDA and CDC to overbroad booster deployment as the "safe" choice, but
exceeding what the evidence would support.

tl;dr:  All the experts agreed that Pfizer recipients age 65+ probably 
needed the booster, which is common sense because age brings
immunosenescence.  The recommendation for boosters for those with
"certain medical conditions" was controversial, and that for "other
medical risk factors" more so.  The experts voted down "occupation puts
patient at risk", but CDC included that category anyway.  Bottom line:
Probably not needed.

But, on the other hand, there's the risk/benefit calculation.  Let's
say, like me, you got Moderna jab #2 back in April, a bit over six
months ago, and you're reasonably healthy for your age.  Say you're
offered a booster.  Well, why not?  It's safe past the objection of any
but loons, and, worst case, you have a sore arm.  Best case, you get an
antibody refresher course that could keep you out of the hospital.  

The antivax propagandists, predictably, cite the deployment of boosters
as supposedly showing the vaccine was ineffective.  THat's bushwah; it's 
proving more effective than most vaccines, under challenging conditions.
The booster deployment is being overdone, for readily understandable
reasons of bureaucrat dynamics.  But I say:  Take it if you're offered
it.

(It's widely speculated, BTW, that the Moderna vaccine's apparent
greater longevity of effectiveness owes to each shot providing a payload
of over 3x as many mRNA particles, relative to Pfizer.  OTOH, that same
difference makes the Moderna vaccine just a bit more likely to produce
some side effects.  E.g., I got shot #3 on Oct. 26th, and I conked out,
early that evening.  However, it's also a fact that I did about 30 miles 
on bicycle that day.)

 
About antivaxers, a late October poll in the USA finds 21.4% still
unwilling to take the vaccine, and about half of those claim nothing
would ever change their minds.
https://www.studyfinds.org/covid-unvaccinated-americans/
OK, fine, good luck with that.  Some will die stupid, some will 
hole up in their houses to avoid vaccine mandates, etc.  The rest of
us will presumably consider them damage and route around them.


Anyway, that brings us to the big news, FDA and CDC's Emergency Use
Authorization of juvenile doses of the Pfizer vaccine for age 5-11.
This is wonderful news, will help protect kids and others, and could
make a critical difference in vaccination rates within a couple of
months.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/01/covid-vaccines-for-kids-are-coming-soon-some-families-are-counting-the-minutes.html

CDC says that age bracket comprises 8.7% of the population -- and, BTW,
10.6% of all reported COVID-19 cases nationwide, in the most recent week
reported.  And sadly, not all kids have an easy time of the infection,
e.g., t least 5,217 American kids have suffered from multisystem
inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C), a very serious compliction that you would
not wish on your worst enemy.

As of now, parents polled on the 5-11 vaccine are split three ways
(nationwide):  1/3 say no, 1/3 say yes, 1/3 say let's wait.  It's going
to be interesting to see if/when that shifts.

San Mateo County currently stands at 73.17% vaccination (calculated on
an all-population basis).
https://www.smchealth.org/data-dashboard/vaccination-totals-locations-data
That's pretty good.  13.4% of the county are under age 12.  Not sure
what the 5-11 percentage is, guesstimating 7%.  If almost all of _those_
get vaxed, we'll be a lot better off.  County says it'll lift the indoor
mask mandate if the all-pop vax rate reaches 80% and we have three weeks
in CDC yellow (moderate) transmission tier.  Almost all of 5-11 getting
vaxed would put us over the 80% mark, you'll notice.

Even if that is slow in arriving, this has nontheless become, as the
saying goes, "a pandemic of the unvaccinated", almost entirely.  Which
is bad, but _so_ much better than we had before.



Anyway, go re-set your clocks.  ;->

-- 
Cheers,                         Grammarian's bar joke #20:  The subjunctive 
Rick Moen                       would have walked into a bar, had it only known.
rick at linuxmafia.com                                                           
McQ! (4x80)