[conspire] Vaccine effectiveness, Sinopharm/Sinovax, and the Delta strain

[Rick Moen]

Greetings, fellow amateur epidemiologists.

----- Forwarded message from Rick Moen <rick at linuxmafia.com> -----

Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2021 13:56:08 -0700
From: Rick Moen <rick at linuxmafia.com>
To: skeptic at linuxmafia.com
Subject: Re: [skeptic] Mad
Organization: If you lived here, you'd be $HOME already.

Quoting Eva Durant (durant.eva at gmail.com):

> So zombiworld-like airport in Manchester, England, waved through to
> security checks without even our passport checked, but Ryanair managed
> to dense us without any social isolation or air before letting us on
> the full plane, then on the Budapest side, if you were Hungarian
> citizens, like us, only the double vaccination proof needed, nothing
> else.  We'll try to isolate for a week or so, hoping Sinopharm not as
> bad as alleged.

Sinopharm BBIBP-CorV and Sinovac CoronaVac (both being traditional
inactivated-virus COVID-19 vaccines, each requiring two doses, and both
WHO-approved) are pretty good -- not state of the art, but _pretty_ good
-- with at least Sinopharm remaining effective even against Delta
variant according to new UAE data (something I'll cover much further
down).  There's lately been a flow of Western propaganda against the two
Chinese vaccines, but that is distortive and should not be taken
seriously.[1]


Effectiveness of all the vaccines against the Delta variant (lineage
B.1.617) is still being studied,  Fairly reliable preliminary results
are available for two of the three US-approved vaccines[2] and UK-approved
Oxford–AstraZeneca (aka Covishield), and likewise for Bharat Biotech's
BBV152 (Covaxin).  To be clear, I mean they remain reasonably effective
against Delta, albeit less than against earlier dominant strains.

As of a fortnight ago, it was reported in Reuters that Chinese health
experts haven't yet furnished data about Sinopharm/Sinovac's
effectiveness against the increasingly dominant Delta strain.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/are-chinese-covid-19-shots-effective-against-delta-variant-2021-06-29/
Three days ago, _Wall Street Journal_ said that situation continues.
https://www.livemint.com/science/health/as-delta-variant-spreads-china-lacks-data-on-its-covid-19-vaccines-11625899868806.html
(In general, the shortage of extensive trial data out of the two Chinese
companies has fed cynicism.)

OTOH, the UAE claims continued effectiveness against Delta for Sinopharm.  
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronavirus-pandemic/delta-variant-covid-vaccines-90-effective-in-preventing-hospitalisations-who-scientist-says


One thing that is making an already bad situation worse is that, in 
parts of the world with endemic government/business corruption such as
most of Latin America, there is now a huge problem with _fraudulent_
vaccines being administered.

That problem is now so notorious in Latin America that a huge number of
citizens of those countries, those who can afford to do so, are finding 
ways to do "vaccine tourism" to the USA at enormous expense, _simply_
because they don't trust available vaccines in their own countries to be
genuine(!)  There is risk of a massive tragedy there in the near future,
including among those who believed they got vaccinated but instead were
given a fake.

And that also means that claims, that we doubtless will soon hear from
those countries, that vaccine X had poor effectiveness must,
unfortunately, be taken cum grano salis, because of high risk of many
vaccinations having been fake.  And, don't forget, major outbreaks tend
to destroy countries' medical establishments, as reportedly has been 
happening in Indonesia, these past few months.


[1] In particular, there was a recent press frenzy over a major COVID-19
outbreak in the Seychelles Islands, touted as "most vaccinated nation"
and with a population of 98,000, following a push to vaccinate the
population so that economically vital international tourism can resume.
(UAE is doing the same thing, and recently surpassed Seychelles as "most
vaccinated nation.) 

2/3 of vaccinated Seychelles residents (primarily under age 60) received
Sinopharm, gift of UAE, and 1/3 (primariy age 60 and over) received
Oxford–AstraZeneca (Covishield), gift of India.  64% of the population
got fully vaccinated with two doses, and 10% more of the population
received one dose but not both.  Amongst the population who got two
doses, 57% had Sinopharm, 43% had Oxford–AstraZeneca (Covishield).

But here's why the press panic was distortive:  A majority of those
Seychellesians who picked up the infection were unvaxed.  80% of
Seychellesians needing hospitalisation had been unvaxed, and also 
tended to have co-morbidities.  Fully vaccinated people who picked up
the infect, in almost every case, remained asymptomatic.  By June, a
total of 63 people had died of the disease.  Of those, three
Seychellesians had been double-vaccinated.
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/opinion/efficacy-of-chinese-vaccine-questioned-after-seychelles-records-surge-in-covid-cases/ar-AALEkPz
https://keyt.com/news/national-world/cnn-asia-pacific/2021/07/02/why-covid-19-outbreaks-in-countries-using-chinese-vaccines-dont-necessarily-mean-the-shots-have-failed/
It is also not completely clear how many double-vaccinated
Seychellesians became infected _after_ fully ramped-up immunity vs.
before:  As you know, it takes a few weeks for the vaccine's tutoring of
the patient's adaptive immune system to take effect.

Data from around the world about various of the available vaccines also
suggests they also reduce transmissibility, even for those unlucky
enough to pick up the infection, and even against Delta.  There's every
reason to think this is true of Sinopharm/Sinovac along with the others.

Yet, most of the press got this story wrong, and both the UK and USA
officially recommend against travel to the Seychelles on account of 
health danger, which is absurd and irrational.

To sum:  (1) Yes, it appears that Sinopharm was immensely helpful in
Seychelles, particularly at averting deaths and hospitalisations.  (2)
Spread was overwhelmingly by asymptomatic infectees, as elsewhere in the
world.  (3) Sinopharm along with Oxford–AstraZeneca (Covishield) largely
prevented serious disease in fully vaccinated people who picked up the
infection, despite co-morbidities, and (almost) fully averted dying from
it.

The rise of the Delta strain may change that picture in the Seychelles;
data are not yet collected.  It is known to be much more highly
infectious, again, primarily asymptomatically.  Thus, its risk is
overwhelming to the unvaxed, and the primary disease vector is others
who are invisibly infectious without symptoms.


[2] Substantive data are not yet available for the third FDA-approved
vaccine, the J&J Janssen vaccine, which is of a third type,
viral-vectored -- in part because it's been unpopular in the USA on
account of a blood-clot problem for a very small number of recipients,
roughly similar to what happened with Oxford-AstraZeneca.  FWIW, J&J
(Johnson & Johnson) now claim continued effectiveness against Delta,
based on a small study.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/johnson-26-johnson-says-coronavirus-vaccine-is-effective-against-delta-variant/ar-AALGaMX



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