[conspire] I wish I had $5000 for everyone who died of Wuhan-19

[paulz at ieee.org]

 On a recent TV news, someone said that concern about disease alternates between panic and don't care.  Prez W Bush was very much concerned and created an office to study and plan for epidemics. Obama expanded the office.  Trump closed it.
I will say thank you, Ruben, for the WSJ article about the virus sometimes lingering.   

For a long time, I had been thinking about exponential growth and mathematics and pond scum.  There are now about 2200 cases in SCC.  Many of those people have either died or recovered so no longer capable of causing new cases.   My guess is that we presently have a stalemate between people recovering and new cases.

The virology folks have models of estimating how many people are "active" at any particular time and then looking forward to correlate that with the number of new cases and estimate the reproductive rate, R.   


The Mercury News discusses it here:

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/28/watch-californias-shrinking-covid-19-outbreak-thanks-to-instagram-founders/


Data about thereproduction rate  https://rt.live/


Compared with an exponential curve fit, there appears to be a bit of educated guess-work.  How long between exposure and getting tested?  How long after being tested might someone be shedding virus?  Two weeks is a generally accepted number.  The WSJ story calls that into doubt.
COVID19 always seems to have, one more thing.  Yesterday I heard that the virus might have mutated.  Now there are two variants which may or may not respond to drugs/vaccines in the same way.  In Andromeda Strain, the virus also mutated.  In the book, magically, the original strain went away leaving only the new variety which was less virulent.  

    On Thursday, May 7, 2020, 7:14:44 AM PDT, Ruben Safir <ruben at mrbrklyn.com> wrote:  
 
 On Thu, May 07, 2020 at 06:42:41AM +0000, paulz at ieee.org wrote:
>  Yesterday Gilead said it would donate 1.5Million doses.  
> Today, Gilead said it has already spent 50Mil on scaling up production of Remdeseriv.  That in addition to expenses to develop the drug and perform tests  
> 
> Although it looks promising in trials, there is no way of knowing if an alternate therapy will be found that essentially obsoletes the Remdeseriv.
> 


Drug thearpy is not going to be fast.  With HIV it took decades, but
they had an advantage (imagine that) in that the disease, before it
killed you, was cronic.  This disease, for most patients, comes and goes
before the patient notices they have it (and yet spread it for 28 days
as I read the latest research).

Running trials is a lot harder.

They need to focus on the vaccine, and they are still not doing this
fact enough.

They also need to invest in general virology.  Epidemic level viral
vacinnations need to be always in research, to be two steps ahead of the
epidemics.  With the current tools for genetic manipulation, they should
be able to do it.


> 
>    On Wednesday, May 6, 2020, 7:55:53 PM PDT, Ruben Safir <ruben at mrbrklyn.com> wrote:  
>  
>  
> If I have $5000 for every man, women and child who died of Wuhan-19...
> 
> Wish not with..
> 
> whatever.
> 
> Tony can now accuse me of being a raving capitalist in cohoots with
> Warren Buffet.
> 
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> I'd be Daniel O’Day for Gilead Pharmacueiticals...
> 
> https://www.gilead.com/stories/articles/an-open-letter-from-our-chairman-and-ceo-april-29
> 
> 
> -- 
> So many immigrant groups have swept through our town
> that Brooklyn, like Atlantis, reaches mythological
> proportions in the mind of the world - RI Safir 1998
> http://www.mrbrklyn.com 
> 
> DRM is THEFT - We are the STAKEHOLDERS - RI Safir 2002
> http://www.nylxs.com - Leadership Development in Free Software
> http://www2.mrbrklyn.com/resources - Unpublished Archive 
> http://www.coinhangout.com - coins!
> http://www.brooklyn-living.com 
> 
> Being so tracked is for FARM ANIMALS and extermination camps, 
> but incompatible with living as a free human being. -RI Safir 2013
> 
> 
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-- 
So many immigrant groups have swept through our town
that Brooklyn, like Atlantis, reaches mythological
proportions in the mind of the world - RI Safir 1998
http://www.mrbrklyn.com 

DRM is THEFT - We are the STAKEHOLDERS - RI Safir 2002
http://www.nylxs.com - Leadership Development in Free Software
http://www2.mrbrklyn.com/resources - Unpublished Archive 
http://www.coinhangout.com - coins!
http://www.brooklyn-living.com 

Being so tracked is for FARM ANIMALS and extermination camps, 
but incompatible with living as a free human being. -RI Safir 2013
  
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