[conspire] COVID-19: wee bit 'o math, and ...

[Ivan Sergio Borgonovo]

On 3/24/20 4:23 AM, Michael Paoli wrote:
>> From: Texx <texxgadget at gmail.com>
>> Subject: Re: [conspire] (forw) Not quite getting it
>> Date: Mon, 23 Mar 2020 16:17:40 -0700
> 
>> Some of my previous math came from Johns Hopkins, by the way.
>>
>> I stand by my estimate that if CA can stay below 45k cases at any given
>> time, we should be able to avoid mellting down the health system
> 
> So, some not-so-random, and semi-random bits (and some opinion and ...):
> 
> I think some of the better bits covering the math, and "exponential"
> (actually logistic - at least in theory) curve, etc. are these two
> videos (and not heavy on the math, so reasonably understandable probably
> by most):
> 
> (could be better titled, but regardless):
> 3Blue1Brown: Exponential growth and epidemics:
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg
> 
> Khan Academy: Estimating actual COVID 19 cases (novel corona virus 
> infections) in an area based on deaths:
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCa0JXEwDEk
> 
> So, taken together, and based (upon above and many other sources) ...
> incubation period 2 to 14 (or 12 was it?) days, (very) rarely (but possibly
> sometimes) longer, average: 5 days

What you keep underestimating is the political and social aspect of all 
of this. That's gonna fuck up all your math. [*]
And even scientists don't live in vacuum.

Italy is quite different from China or Korea.
Italy now is a bit different to other EU countries (I should get into 
internal politics...).
EU is pretty different from US in important aspects.

Furthermore the time the "market" was thought to be made of equal 
rational agents is way over.

Remember that the people running your country will get easy access to an 
ICU no matter what. They didn't take the responsibility for the 2000 
financial crisis, they didn't take the responsibility for the 2008 
financial crisis, are you seriously expecting they are going to pay for 
a "Chinese virus"?
Not necessarily the federal nature of US is going to save you from the 
TIC. If I had to judge from DE and IT experience I'd say quite the opposite.

BTW hi Rich (rsk), long time no see ;)

[*] and yeah the only thing important is its exponential nature, you 
don't want to go where details matter.

-- 
Ivan Sergio Borgonovo
https://www.webthatworks.it https://www.borgonovo.net