[conspire] (forw) Not quite getting it

[Texx]

Heres what I know about Covid19:

I have adopted the Japanese bow as my preferred greeting and dont see
dropping it anytime this year.
Perhaps if this country learned to bow, the country might be a better place.

Elbow bumps still get you too close.

When we had the SARS scare, I attended a number of seminars about how it
would play out, what to expect etc.
Its playing out as they predicted then, but fortunately, this thing is less
lethal than SARS.

It is important to distinguish between "Corona Virus" vs: "Novel Corona
Virus 2019 (AKA: COVID19)"
Please note that I will use the proper name of this virus (and its 20
variants)

Corona Virus is a family of viruses that includes the common cold.
While we still get colds, we have a "herd immunity" which eases its
severity.

We get a couple Flu-A and a couple Flu-B each year.
We often get them, but again "Herd Immunity" softens their effects.

Covid19 is a "Novel" corona virus, your body hasnt seen anything even
remotely similar to it,
so there is zero herd immunity, therefore it hits with maximum impact.

Viruses tend to be spread by touch.
You touch a contaminated surface and then you touch eyes nose or mouth and
it enters us this way.
Covid19 can also be spread by being coughed or sneezed on by an infected
person.
Its starting to look like it can be spread without contact or coughing is
you are within 2-3 metres.
Outside 3 metres, there doesnt seem to be any spread without sneezing
droplets or touching
contaminated surfaces.

Antibiotics work on bacterial infections but not virus.

Soap, alcohol, & colloidal silver work on both bacteria and virus.

Coloidal silver works OUTSIDE the blood stream.
Nebulized coloidal silver seems to work on the surface of lung linings,
but isnt that effective once its absorbed into the body itself.

There is talk of cloroquin and an HIV med being used.
Their success is apocrophal at best.
They have not been properly studied and this thing will be over before a
proper study can be conducted.
They also dont work on the virus.
They (if they work at all) ease the symptoms of the pneumonia that some
contract as part of Covid19.

Interestingly enough Trump has one devils advocate that hes hot about to
fire.
Tony Fauci has been correcting the record after Trumps gaffes.

Per Mayo Clinic:
Symptoms appear 2-14 days after exposure, sometimes, rarely after 14.

It appears that once exposed you are contagious several days before
symptoms appear.

Symptoms: Fever, dry cough, tiredness, muscle soreness, sometimes runny nose

80% never get into severe respiratory problems.
In severe cases things start getting way worse around day 5.
In mild cases, 7th or 8th day is the turning point when things start
getting better
with things having run their course in 14 days.

Initially I heard that runny nose was not a Covid19 symptom, but I stand
corrected,
it sometimes is indeed a symptom.

Looking at the new cases, California is entering the vertical part of the
exponential curve.
My personal experience with these curves, Im expecting to have an idea
around Wed when it should peak.

Once symptoms appear, I dont see a point to testing.
Once they appear, treat the symptoms and be done with it.
The only advantage of testing would be additional data,
but with testing supplies short and the need to check non symptomatic
people, Im not sure its that helpful.

The list of events I was going to do this year is rapidly getting cancelled.
Radio related public service is cancelled til July, Printers faire in April
cancelled,
and while I wasnt going to go, I was going to print shopping bags for
Southern Rennfaire.
No word on Norcal faire or Dickens yet.  Bay to Breakers is delayed to Sept.

SARS killed 1 in 10 and this thing seems to be only taking out 1 in 50.
With 80% just having a rough week, I dare to be hopeful.

The scary thing is going to be the economy.
It may end up being so severe that the people in charge may be forced
to do things they should have done years ago.

Im aware of several CABAL regulars whos imune systems I would not consider
100%,
so I totally understand.

Without the current lockdown, half of CA would be infected by mid May.
Considering the present curve, we may still get close to that.
Worst case, I would place the deathtool in CA at 800k people.
Bad but not in the millions like SARS would have.

In the lucky 80% this thing runs its course in 2 weeks.
If you are a gig worker, having had it and recovered makes you more
marketable.

This thing is going to have long term effects, such as the housing
situation.
Open seating plans in offices started out with people wanting to copy
Google.
Google discovered that it didnt work the way they wanted, but accountants
have discovered cost savings
and open seating is on the rise.
Either it will reverse course in the name of controlling disease spread, or
the accountants will jump on having everyone work from home
like many are right now.
This is going to be a game changer no matter what.

























On Sat, Mar 21, 2020 at 9:10 AM Nick Moffitt <nick at zork.net> wrote:

> On 21Mar2020 02:26am (-0700), Rick Moen wrote:
> > There's a famous puzzle:  'Algae starts growing on a pond surface.
> > Growth will then double the surface area covered each day, achieving
> > 100% coverage after 30 days.  On which day will the pond be half
> > covered?'  The governors of NY, CT, and IL (as per below) seem likely to
> > give the typical (and very wrong) answer:  'day 15'.  The correct
> > answer: day 29.
>
> This goes the other way, too.  If you ask "On day 29 the pond is
> half-covered.  On which day will it be completely covered?", people will
> respond in the high 50s.  The answer is "the very next day".
>
> _______________________________________________
> conspire mailing list
> conspire at linuxmafia.com
> http://linuxmafia.com/mailman/listinfo/conspire
>


-- 

R "Texx" Woodworth
Sysadmin, E-Postmaster, IT Molewhacker
"Face down, 9 edge 1st, roadkill on the information superdata highway..."
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