<div dir="ltr"><div>Heres what I know about Covid19:<br><br>I have adopted the Japanese bow as my preferred greeting and dont see dropping it anytime this year.<br>Perhaps if this country learned to bow, the country might be a better place.<br><br>Elbow bumps still get you too close.<br><br>When we had the SARS scare, I attended a number of seminars about how it would play out, what to expect etc.<br>Its playing out as they predicted then, but fortunately, this thing is less lethal than SARS.<br><br>It is important to distinguish between "Corona Virus" vs: "Novel Corona Virus 2019 (AKA: COVID19)"<br>Please note that I will use the proper name of this virus (and its 20 variants)<br><br>Corona Virus is a family of viruses that includes the common cold.<br>While we still get colds, we have a "herd immunity" which eases its severity.<br><br>We get a couple Flu-A and a couple Flu-B each year.<br>We often get them, but again "Herd Immunity" softens their effects.<br><br>Covid19 is a "Novel" corona virus, your body hasnt seen anything even remotely similar to it, <br>so there is zero herd immunity, therefore it hits with maximum impact.<br><br>Viruses tend to be spread by touch.<br>You touch a contaminated surface and then you touch eyes nose or mouth and it enters us this way.<br>Covid19 can also be spread by being coughed or sneezed on by an infected person.<br>Its starting to look like it can be spread without contact or coughing is you are within 2-3 metres.<br>Outside 3 metres, there doesnt seem to be any spread without sneezing droplets or touching <br>contaminated surfaces.<br><br>Antibiotics work on bacterial infections but not virus.<br><br>Soap, alcohol, & colloidal silver work on both bacteria and virus.<br><br>Coloidal silver works OUTSIDE the blood stream.<br>Nebulized coloidal silver seems to work on the surface of lung linings, <br>but isnt that effective once its absorbed into the body itself.<br><br>There is talk of cloroquin and an HIV med being used.<br>Their success is apocrophal at best.<br>They have not been properly studied and this thing will be over before a proper study can be conducted.<br>They also dont work on the virus.<br>They (if they work at all) ease the symptoms of the pneumonia that some contract as part of Covid19.<br><br>Interestingly enough Trump has one devils advocate that hes hot about to fire.<br>Tony Fauci has been correcting the record after Trumps gaffes.<br><br>Per Mayo Clinic:<br>Symptoms appear 2-14 days after exposure, sometimes, rarely after 14.<br><br>It appears that once exposed you are contagious several days before symptoms appear.<br><br>Symptoms: Fever, dry cough, tiredness, muscle soreness, sometimes runny nose<br><br>80% never get into severe respiratory problems.<br>In severe cases things start getting way worse around day 5.<br>In mild cases, 7th or 8th day is the turning point when things start getting better <br>with things having run their course in 14 days.<br><br>Initially I heard that runny nose was not a Covid19 symptom, but I stand corrected, <br>it sometimes is indeed a symptom.<br><br>Looking at the new cases, California is entering the vertical part of the exponential curve.<br>My personal experience with these curves, Im expecting to have an idea around Wed when it should peak.<br><br>Once symptoms appear, I dont see a point to testing.<br>Once they appear, treat the symptoms and be done with it.<br>The only advantage of testing would be additional data, <br>but with testing supplies short and the need to check non symptomatic people, Im not sure its that helpful.<br><br>The list of events I was going to do this year is rapidly getting cancelled.<br>Radio related public service is cancelled til July, Printers faire in April cancelled, <br>and while I wasnt going to go, I was going to print shopping bags for Southern Rennfaire.<br>No word on Norcal faire or Dickens yet. Bay to Breakers is delayed to Sept.<br><br>SARS killed 1 in 10 and this thing seems to be only taking out 1 in 50.<br>With 80% just having a rough week, I dare to be hopeful.<br><br>The scary thing is going to be the economy.<br>It may end up being so severe that the people in charge may be forced <br>to do things they should have done years ago.<br></div><div><br></div><div>Im aware of several CABAL regulars whos imune systems I would not consider 100%,</div><div>so I totally understand.</div><div><br></div><div>Without the current lockdown, half of CA would be infected by mid May.</div><div>Considering the present curve, we may still get close to that.</div><div>Worst case, I would place the deathtool in CA at 800k people.</div><div>Bad but not in the millions like SARS would have.</div><div><br></div><div>In the lucky 80% this thing runs its course in 2 weeks.</div><div>If you are a gig worker, having had it and recovered makes you more marketable.</div><div><br></div><div>This thing is going to have long term effects, such as the housing situation.</div><div>Open seating plans in offices started out with people wanting to copy Google.</div><div>Google discovered that it didnt work the way they wanted, but accountants have discovered cost savings</div><div>and open seating is on the rise.</div><div>Either it will reverse course in the name of controlling disease spread, or the accountants will jump on having everyone work from home</div><div>like many are right now.</div><div>This is going to be a game changer no matter what.</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><br><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sat, Mar 21, 2020 at 9:10 AM Nick Moffitt <<a href="mailto:nick@zork.net">nick@zork.net</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">On 21Mar2020 02:26am (-0700), Rick Moen wrote:<br>
> There's a famous puzzle: 'Algae starts growing on a pond surface.<br>
> Growth will then double the surface area covered each day, achieving<br>
> 100% coverage after 30 days. On which day will the pond be half<br>
> covered?' The governors of NY, CT, and IL (as per below) seem likely to<br>
> give the typical (and very wrong) answer: 'day 15'. The correct<br>
> answer: day 29. <br>
<br>
This goes the other way, too. If you ask "On day 29 the pond is half-covered. On which day will it be completely covered?", people will respond in the high 50s. The answer is "the very next day".<br>
<br>
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</blockquote></div><br clear="all"><div><br></div>-- <br><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature"><br>R "Texx" Woodworth<br>Sysadmin, E-Postmaster, IT Molewhacker<br>"Face down, 9 edge 1st, roadkill on the information superdata highway..."<br></div>