[conspire] [L]UGs & ...: Re: Cabal & Covid19

[Michael Paoli]

Well ...


As far as "end date(s)" of the orders and social distancing,
at this point nobody knows exactly when.  And "going back",
from where things are now, likely won't be a flip-the-switch
off-->on, but more a transition over days to week(s) or month(s).

So ... lazy/efficient? ;-)  I'd likely guess somewhere between 3
weeks (including the time when this started for the (first) 6
San Francisco Bay Area counties, and ... 2 years(-ish).
Maybe a better guestimation would be looking "ahead" at relevant
examples ... China, Hong Kong, South Korea, ... Italy ... they're
all week(s) to month(s) or bit more "ahead" of us on how they're
going thorough and have been through this.  But "of course" each
is also different - at least somewhat ... what measures were/weren't
taken when, how effectively, how "nominal" social contacts are in
each geography/country/location/locality - and how they've changed
and when along the way, etc.  So, ... maybe only month(s)-ish ...
not 'till "all clear", but 'til things are at least moderately
better and we're starting to turn the corner and can at least
loosen things a wee bit?  But, back to lazy/efficient ...
web pages, calendars, ... if I guess a (restriction) end time/date
for all [L]UGs to be fully back to "normal" ... if I guess too soon,
that means more updates to do (and hope I don't miss doing any that
are needed).  If I guess (far) too long, ... then I only have to do
one set of updates.  And ... "forever" is absolutely definitely
too long, ... hence only need one set of updates to "fix" that. ;-)
Besides, much easier to predict the (near) past, than to predict the
future.  ;-)
Hindsight is always 20/20.  ;-)


> From: "Rick Moen" <rick at linuxmafia.com>
> Subject: Re: [conspire] [L]UGs & ...: Re:  Cabal & Covid19
> Date: Sat, 21 Mar 2020 01:19:22 -0700

> Quoting Michael Paoli (Michael.Paoli at cal.berkeley.edu):
>
>> Yes, generally best to presume in-person cancelled (and by legal order,
>> if not common sense),
>> until things are clearly stated otherwise.
>
> Expanding on my tongue-in-cheek 'Magic 8-ball' comment:  No, I am not
> pre-emptively cancelling the April and May CABAL meetings, because we're
> all obviously in a dynamic situation where anyone who says he/she can
> accurately predict where we'll be, that far in the future, is either
> deluded or lying.
>
> If I had to _guess_, I would speculate that the Bay Area and state of
> California's highly commendable flatten-the-curve tactics will still
> be in place for several months, but OTOH there's also a difficult-to-guess
> but significant likelihood of official reversion to (at least) the
> pre-Monday social distancing guidelines.