[conspire] When to get a covid test, brains, and a weird case, and a cardiology vs. immunology joke

[Ivan Sergio Borgonovo]

On 8/7/20 11:55 AM, Ruben Safir wrote:
> On Fri, Aug 07, 2020 at 11:27:47AM +0200, Ivan Sergio Borgonovo wrote:
>> On 8/7/20 10:41 AM, Rick Moen wrote:
>>
>>> You keep reiterating the 'docs' mailing list mantra, the one I got so
>>> tired of you guys blitzing each other with many times each day that I
>>> muted the entire mailing list's delivery stream, that 'There are only
>>> two possible ways forward, either herd immunity or a vaccine', and
>>> keep missing the obvious point -- even though I keep mentioning it --
>>> that New Zealand had neither herd immunity nor a vaccine, yet stomped
>>> the infection completely out, nationwide.
>>>
>>> Maybe the reason you 'docs' regulars (who by a _totally_ strange
>>> coincidence seem to all be Trumpistas) keep reiterating the mantra
>>> endlessly is so you can avoid thinking about the third obvious route
>>> forward:  competence.
>>
>>
>> Can somebody explain what heard immunity without a vaccine really means?
>>
>> Waiting people die and get ill, just slower? or faster?

> If you go to slow you won't reach hurd immunity and your are then poised
> for a disaster down the line.

> The virus will mutate and immunity might be time dependent.

So you're arguing that the risk of mutation overwhelm the risk of people 
dying and that later, by magic, once everyone will get infected it will 
disappear and furthermore that we will have a vaccine that works 
regardless of mutations JIT.

There is one legitimate point on "herd immunity" but again there is no 
solid enough scientific proof that you can count on it: people that got 
infected and survived got immune.

Now suppose you can guess by magic who's gonna survive and they get 
infected first, if they get infected under controlled conditions and 
they get immune, they won't be vehicles of further infections.

Can you notice that basing your strategy on a very long and nested if 
chain is not good risk management?

> Rick is incorrect  on this issue.  This virus is spread world wide
> and case after case where they thought they had it containted, it became
> uncontained.  His example of New Zealand is conviently in the middle of
> the Pacific Ocean on an Island and they are desperatly waiting for a
> vaccine before the virus escapes containment there.

Partially true, but it doesn't make your strategy any better.


(and please don't cc me. I'm subscribed to the list if you didn't notice)


-- 
Ivan Sergio Borgonovo
https://www.webthatworks.it https://www.borgonovo.net