[conspire] mortality/health etc. stats/data: Re: Numbers racket

[Michael Paoli]

> From: "Ruben Safir" <ruben at mrbrklyn.com>
> Subject: Re: [conspire] Numbers racket
> Date: Mon, 27 Apr 2020 17:37:33 -0400

> On 4/27/20 5:23 AM, Rich Kulawiec wrote:
>>  The most likely hypothesis is that those are probably
>> undiagnosed COVID-19 cases, e.g., people who died at home in New York
>> before they could be transported to a hospital and diagnosed.
>
>
> No.  I was at in a meeting at a hospital last night until 2AM, going
> over M&M reports and likely future outcomes, and that is just not the
> case.  Mortality numbers are very complex but most of the cases of

Yes, at least in part I'd quite agree.   At present time, numbers such
as mortality stats - and underlying relevant factors, are quite complex.

To name just some points (mostly US-centric examples):

o Shelter-in-Place/Lockdown, etc. impacts who does/doesn't go to doctor,
   hospital, etc. for routine care, appointments, various conditions, etc.
o COVID-19 contagion threats & extra healthcare burden keeps many out of /
   away from health care that would otherwise typically be receiving such
o Shelter-in-Place/Lockdown has huge impacts on where and how people are
   and aren't living, working, staying, breathing, who they are/aren't in
   contact with, what they eat, what exercise they do/don't get, mental
   health and stress, much etc. - that's gotta have all kinds of influences
   on health ... and by extension, morbidity.  Semi-random example, just
   think of so many many seniors much much more socially and physically
   isolated now, being generally totally unable to have any in-person
   contacts with family, friends, etc.  Most any segment of the population
   is impacted, in various different ways.  Who knows, some folks may
   even be eating much healthier - home cooked good stuff, as opposed to
   far too regular fast food crud.  Anyway, I'm sure the vastly changed
   circumstances have to have all kinds of interesting and differing
   impacts upon health and mortality stats ... not to mention throwing all
   the direct COVID-19 stuff into the mix too.

"Of course" that doesn't mean we still can't get some good data and draw
some useful conclusions ... but we should be dang careful to not presume
too much under these quite atypical circumstances.  And of course, don't
forget thus far chronic under-testing of COVID-19 and related.