[conspire] Numbers racket

[Ruben Safir]

On Mon, Apr 27, 2020 at 03:22:32PM -0700, Deirdre Saoirse Moen wrote:
> On Mon, Apr 27, 2020, at 2:59 PM, Ruben Safir wrote:
> > On 4/27/20 5:23 AM, Rich Kulawiec wrote:
> > >  The most likely hypothesis is that those are probably
> > > undiagnosed COVID-19 cases, e.g., people who died at home in New York
> > > before they could be transported to a hospital and diagnosed.
> > 
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates
> > 
> > These numbers are wrong, BTW - but here they are.
> > https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
> > 
> > 156,100 total cases (nice round number boys)
> > and the deaths are 11,708
> > 
> > which comes out to be about 0.7%, a fairly expected number...
> > 
> > I have no idea what John Hospkins and Wikipedia is looking at.
> 
> So you complained that Wikipedia listed a CFR (case fatality rate) of 6.91% and then you said that deaths in NYC were 11,708 of 156,100 or 0.7% -- which is actually 7.5% CFR. So NYC is worse than the global average, not better. :P
> 

Your correct about that.  We are looking at an expected mortality rate of
0.67%, which is not the CFR.  Actually, we are not even looking at that.
We are looking at the mortality over the entire hospital census.

> > 11_708.0 / 156_100 * 100.0 (the last to get percentage)
> => 7.500320307495195
> 
> …and that's just the *confirmed* cases.
> 
> Wake up, sir.

I just pulled a 14 hour shift after being up most of last night, so I am
a little beat.  


> 
> Deirdre
> 
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