[conspire] Numbers racket

[Deirdre Saoirse Moen]

On Mon, Apr 27, 2020, at 2:59 PM, Ruben Safir wrote:
> On 4/27/20 5:23 AM, Rich Kulawiec wrote:
> >  The most likely hypothesis is that those are probably
> > undiagnosed COVID-19 cases, e.g., people who died at home in New York
> > before they could be transported to a hospital and diagnosed.
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates
> 
> These numbers are wrong, BTW - but here they are.
> https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
> 
> 156,100 total cases (nice round number boys)
> and the deaths are 11,708
> 
> which comes out to be about 0.7%, a fairly expected number...
> 
> I have no idea what John Hospkins and Wikipedia is looking at.

So you complained that Wikipedia listed a CFR (case fatality rate) of 6.91% and then you said that deaths in NYC were 11,708 of 156,100 or 0.7% -- which is actually 7.5% CFR. So NYC is worse than the global average, not better. :P

> 11_708.0 / 156_100 * 100.0 (the last to get percentage)
=> 7.500320307495195

…and that's just the *confirmed* cases.

Wake up, sir.

Deirdre