[conspire] real numbers

[paulz at ieee.org]

I have been taking the SCC count of total cases and graphing it starting at March 1 when there were 3 cases.
I used LibreOffice which can easily do a curve fit with a few mouse clicks. I'd be happy to share the graph, but this email has limited capacity.
For the first half of March number of cases was doubling in 2 days.
Then the first set of suggestions, wash hands, don't sneeze, slowed the rate to about 5 days for the latter half of March.
Around the beginning of April, 2 weeks after the shutdown, the curve had another inflection.

3/31    890 cases4/15    1793 cases
So the number has doubled in 15 days.
If I stare at the data hard enough, I can imagine that it is now 20 days.  However,  it is not statistically sound to use 6 days of noisy data to accurately estimate for 3 weeks.

Anyway, the number of cases continues to climb, but the rate is much slower.  For the health care people it is probably the difference between bracing for a hurricane vs a tsunami. 

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