<html><head></head><body><div class="yahoo-style-wrap" style="font-family:Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:13px;"><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">I have been taking the SCC count of total cases and graphing it starting at March 1 when there were 3 cases.</div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">I used LibreOffice which can easily do a curve fit with a few mouse clicks. I'd be happy to share the graph, but this email has limited capacity.</div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">For the first half of March number of cases was doubling in 2 days.</div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">Then the first set of suggestions, wash hands, don't sneeze, slowed the rate to about 5 days for the latter half of March.</div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">Around the beginning of April, 2 weeks after the shutdown, the curve had another inflection.<br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">3/31 890 cases</div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">4/15 1793 cases</div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">So the number has doubled in 15 days.</div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">If
I stare at the data hard enough, I can imagine that it is now 20 days. However, it is not statistically sound to use 6 days of noisy data to accurately
estimate for 3 weeks.<br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">Anyway, the number of cases continues to climb, but the rate is much slower. For the health care people it is probably the difference between bracing for a hurricane vs a tsunami. <br></div></div><div><br></div></div></div></body></html>