Article: 458761 of rec.arts.sf.written.robert-jordan Path: uchinews!newsfeed.stanford.edu!xfer10.netnews.com!netnews.com!newsfeed.skycache.com!Cidera!cpk-news-hub1.bbnplanet.com!news.gtei.net!nntp2.deja.com!nnrp1.deja.com!not-for-mail From: Trinity Newsgroups: rec.arts.sf.written.robert-jordan Subject: Military Movements, the DO's Plan, and More (LONG) Date: Wed, 15 Nov 2000 20:31:09 GMT Organization: Deja.com - Before you buy. Lines: 339 Message-ID: <8uurqf$pn2$1@nnrp1.deja.com> NNTP-Posting-Host: 129.174.123.54 X-Article-Creation-Date: Wed Nov 15 20:31:09 2000 GMT X-Http-User-Agent: Mozilla/4.7 [en] (WinNT; U) X-Http-Proxy: 1.0 x70.deja.com:80 (Squid/1.1.22) for client 129.174.123.54 X-MyDeja-Info: XMYDJUIDvergils_ghost Xref: uchinews rec.arts.sf.written.robert-jordan:458761 After finishing WH, I thought it'd be interesting to look at the current military movements in Randland, and what they might indicate about the Dark One's plans. Spoilers Ahead G r a e n d e l k i l l e d A s m o d e a n 1) Along the Blight: In POD, we're told that the Borderland monarchs left enough forces behind to guard the Blight against anything short of the Second Trolloc Wars. How much of this is bluster, and how much truth, we don't know, but given that about 200K soldiers went with the Borderland monarchs, and they -- or at least Shienar -- has been suffering from internal strife, the Blight border seems very weak at the moment. 2) Arad Domon: In one of Mat's scenes, there's a rumor mentioned of armies moving in Arad Domon. Since we've never seen Arad Domon, there's little we can conclude about what's going on there, although there's a good probability it has something to do with Graendel. 3) The Rebel Aes Sedai (mixed forces): We don't have firm numbers on the Rebel strength, although I seem to recall ~400 Aes Sedai, and a larger number of non-Tower trained channelers. They have one of the greatest living generals on their side, along with a plan of attack, and an element of surprise. In addition, they have a large number of female channelers not constrained by the Three Oaths. 4) Tower Aes Sedai: Elaida's been bolstering the Tower's forces, but it's doubtful that she has as many men as Bryne. Nor does she have a great military leader on her side, and, unlike Egwene, she doesn't have absolute control. In terms of full sisters, TAS should be equal to or even out number the rebels -- although blunders like Dumai's Wells and the BT raid have drained their numbers. However, Elaida's forces are constrained by the Three Oaths -- except for the Black Ajah, who will face an interesting bind in the coming battle. The real weakness for the Tower is the internal dissension, which is likely to be the deciding factor. 5) The Younglings: A fairly small, but elite force, their role in the Battle of Tar Valon should be interesting. Though nominally tied to the Tower, the Aes Sedai have gone out of their way to alienate the Younglings. On top of this, their leader, Gawyn, has strong reasons to side with the rebels. 6) Aiel in Kinslayer's Dagger(?): In COS, Rand sent a large force of Aiel to Kinslayer's Dagger to finally take care of the Shaido. Of course, the Shaido disappeared before Rand's Aiel could get there. We haven't heard about this army since COS, so there's no way of knowing if they're still up there hunting Shaido, or if they've returned. 7) Rand's Forces in Cairhein (mixed): Contains a large chunk of Rand's forces, including most of the Aiel. They've been sitting still for a long while. 8) The Borderlanders (4 Armies): By Merilille's estimates, around 200K men, sitting in the Braem woods, just north of the Andor border, although when last seen, Elayne had asked them to move into Andor itself. They claim to have moved south to meet with Rand and discuss his neglect of the Blight Border. 9) Elayne's Army in Andor: A pitifully small force, barely able to keep control in Caemlyn itself. Although Elayne's asked Birgitte to step up recruiting, it's strength is still about equal to Tylin's army in Ebou Dar pre-Seanchan invasion. 10) Rand's Forces in Andor (mixed): Includes the ever growing Legions of the Dragon, Bashere's Saldeans, and Aiel. Since Elayne's return to Caemlyn, they've been forced from the city. 11) The Ashaman: At last count, they're still short of 500 men, but ever increasing, with probably fifty Aes Sedai warders. Although created by Rand, their affiliation is now unknown, and dissent is growing within the organization. 12) The Four Mystery Armies: Upon Elayne's return to Caemlyn, her Secretary of the Treasury informs her of four armies marching on Caemlyn from the east. He estimate they number 20-30K troops, although whether that's individually or total isn't made clear. The big question is, who are they? My first guess was that they were the Borderland armies, but there are several reasons this can't be the case: A) The Borderland armies are in the Braem Woods, north of the Andor border, and probably a bit to the west of Caemlyn (We know this because one of the kings was surprised Elayne wanted them to enter Andor). B) While there's some theoretical possibility that the Borderland Aes Sedai can Travel, the Sec Treas comments that news came of these armies shortly after Elayne left, not giving the Borderlanders enough time to move. So, what are these mystery armies? Elayne seems to think that the other nobles couldn't be moving against her so quickly, but I think we've seen enough evidence that Elayne isn't the sharpest knife up the sleeve when it comes to Daes Dae'mar. Given the disappearance to the two nobles a chapter earlier, it could very well be contenders for the throne. The only other possibility I can see is that these are armies of the Dark One finally making their move -- but more of this at the end. 13) Band of the Red Hand (mixed): Last seen in Murandy, trying to help the king unify the nation, basically doing mercenary work while waiting for Mat to reappear. There's a good chance that Mat will be heading that way on his escape from Seanchan controlled territory. Personally, I'd like to see the Band serve as the anvil to Perrin's hammer which finally smashes the Shaido. 14) Army of Andoran Nobles: Camped in norther Murandy, which they hope to add to Andor. Their numbers are unknown, though they have enough men to pose a threat to Murandy, but that's not saying too much. 15) Murandian Army: More of a joke than an army, which the King of Murandy hopes he can consolidate into one force with which he can use to maintain Murandy's soveriegnty. 16) Dragonsworn: Followers of the Prophet, located primarily in Gheladan, along with Amadacia. More of the anti-army, with no real organization, the Dragonsworn have created a swath of chaos in the middle of Randland proper. Technically affiliated with Rand, the Dragonsworn apparently have allied themselves with the Seanchan. 17) Shaido: Before being scattered across the continent, the Shaido consisted of ~100K warriors, along with several dozen channelers of moderate strength. Currently their strength is stretched from Gheladan to Illian, with one large pocket in Amadacia, made up of perhaps 40K warriors, along with channelers. Given their current position, the Shaido primarily pose a threat to the Seanchan, Dragonsworn, Perrin's army, and the Children of Light. Incompetent leaders and internal dissent further mitigate the threat they pose. 18) Children of Light: Maybe 1-2000 men, wandering around Gheladan and Amadacia, they've been mentioned several times in POD and WH, although they haven't appeared on screen since COS. With Amadacia mostly under Seanchan control, they have no support base. 19) Perrin's Army (mixed): A ragtag mixture, including Mayeners, Aiel maidens, 2 Rivers bowman, and two Ashaman, two Aes Sedai, and a handful of wiseones, along with the recent addition of Gheladanians loyal to the queen, and Dragonsworn. In POD, Perrin mentally listed out his forces. Although he didn't actually add them up, there was enough information present to estimate that his army contain just under 2000 men. With the addition of the Gheladanians, the army probably numbers 2000-2500 men. The Prophet's forces haven't actually integrated into Perrin's army, but they push his numbers up to 3000-3500. He still has fewer men at his disposal than any other army opperating in the vicinity, except for the Children of Light. The presence of channelers gives them a slight edge over any Dragonsworn who don't know the Prophet's with them, but they're no match for the Shaido or Seanchan. 20) Seanchan: Apart from the Dark One's hordes of Trollocs, and all of Rand's forces combined, the Seanchan out number every military in Randland. They currently control a swath of land from Tarabon to Ebou Dar, and are ever expanding. Rand's attempt to stop them in POD seems to have merely slowed them down. Currently they're mounting a second offensive against Illian. Although Rand can probably move forces into a position to stop the Seanchan a second time, their only problems at present are the abduction of Tuon, and a rebellion about to break out in Ebou Dar. 20a) The Seanchan Navy: Apart from the Sea Folk, the Seanchan currently have the only formiddible navy around. They appear to have complete naval supperiority in the Aryth Ocean, although they don't seem to have control over the Sea of Storms -- the Amayar on Tremalking still seem to have contact with the Sea Folk as of the last chapter of WH. 21) Rand's Forces in Illian: Apart from the Companions, their composition is currently unknown. After Rand's offensive against the Seanchan stalled, he appears to have removed the Ashaman and Legions of the Dragon from the theater of operations, leaving just the Companions, and possibly some Cairheinin's and Tearans. 22) Rand's forces in Tear: We haven't seen Tear since The Shadow Rising, but when Rand left then, he left only loyal Tearans behind. Since then, we've had no indications that he's bolstered his forces there -- his army on the Plains of Maredo, and Haddon Mirk taking care of Illian and the rebels respectively was enough defense at the time. 23) Rebels in Haddon Mirk: Lord Darlin's men who actively rebeled against Rand, have been sitting in Haddon Mirk since TSR, except for whatever men Darlin took within him to Cairhein. Given their lack of activity, they're hardly a threat to anyone, although Darlin's position as Rand's protector/regent in Tear may have changed that. Rand recently dispatched some Aes Sedai to negociate with them. 24) Another Mystery Army: In WH, Rand overhears a rumor that the Stone of Tear is under seige, although he doesn't hear by whom. There are several possible answers, though: A) The Rebels in Haddon Mirk (SEE: 23) moved on the city having heard about Lord Darlin. B) Rand loyalists don't believe that Darlin's really Rand's regent, and have risen up against him/refuse to yield the stone to him. C) Darlin has taken the position given him by Rand and decided to rule Tear himself, causing an uprising. (Although I seem to recall Min having a viewing that Darlin would serve Rand.) D) The Seanchan have attacked the city. This would mean they've bypassed Illian, or the news that the Seanchan are attacking Illian is out of date, and they're finishing their conquest of the south coast by taking Tear. E) The Dark One's finally making his move by launching an attack on Tear. (SEE ALSO: 12) F) This is misinformation on RJ's part, and the rumor is either totally or partly wrong. The most likely possibility in this case is that someone heard Lord Darlin's ruling Tear and figured there was a war taking place there. 25) La Resistance: Anti-Seanchan partisans in Ebou Dar (and possibly elsewhere) who are planning to fight the Seanchan empire from within. In Ebou Dar, they're led Charles de Ga--Prince Beslan. Thanks to Mat, they're about to have a bunch of Sea Folk -- including channelers -- join the cause. 26) The Atha'an Miere: Apart from the Seanchan, they appear to be the only major naval force in Randland. While the Seanchan don't seem to have complete control of the Sea of Storms yet, the Sea Folk have been pulling their forces back; by last report, the Sea Folk have been gathering ships in Tear. They also have ships in Cairhein and Andor. A fairly large contingent of Sea Folk have been captured by the Seanchan in Ebou Dar, although at the end of WH, they were about to break free and start a rebellion. ANALYSIS: With the Blight as unguarded as it's been since the breaking, this would be a perfect time for the DO to make a move. Apart from what the Borderlanders left behind - which despite their claims, I doubt will be strong enough to withstand the Trolloc Wars II - the only major armies north of Kinslayer's Dagger are the Aes Sedai armies at Tar Valon, and the Domani. Now, Graendel's been in Arad Domon for quite a while, playing with the government, and given the rumors of troop movements in WH, I doubt they'll be able to stand up to the DO's forces, if he makes a move. Meanwhile, of the two armies at Tar Valon, one's about to be destroyed, and the surviving army will probably be in no position to fight another major battle. On top of that, both sides have been infiltrated by Dark Friends, who control the leadership. In a straight forward war, the Trollocs could mount a blitzkrieg, reaching Kinslayer's Dagger before Rand could mount a defense. However, the introduction of Traveling makes things far more complicated. But there is another interpretation of these army movements. Instead of simply drawing all formidable armies away from the Blight, this could be an attempt to bunch Rand's forces together in the center of Randland. Between Graendel in Arad Domon, and Semirhage with the Seanchan, Shadow controlled forces have the entire west coast of Randland, and the south coast to Ebou Dar - and they're continuing to push against Illian, which was in Sammael's control until the end of COS. The Blight is obviously in Shadow hands, and the Borderlands are at their weakest level since probably the Trolloc Wars. Meanwhile, a large portion of Rand's forces are located in Andor, Gheladan/Amadacia, and Murandy, none of which is really under Rand's control, even if two of them (Gheladan and Andor) are aligned with him. The rest of Rand's forces are off in Cairhein. Even forces that want to side with Rand (the Borderlanders) are all the way down in Andor. If the Seanchan take Illian, and the DO launches an attack on the Borderlands, Rand's forces will effectively be blocked into the center of the continent, with the Spine of the World to their backs, one sea port in Tear, and a war on three fronts brewing. The real wild cards are the four mystery armies in Andor (12), and the one in Tear (24). For the heroes the best case scenario is that the siege of Tear is just a rumor precipitated by Darlin claiming the regency of Tear, and the armies in Andor are, despite Elayne's analysis, rebel nobles who wish to claim the throne. However, from the story standpoint, I think this would be far better if these were the start of the Dark One's move against Rand's forces. Consider the following situation: TFOH: The Forsaken Conspiracy attempts to kill Rand, but backfires, resulting in Lanfear and Rahvin's death, followed by Asmodean's assassination. LOC: After a year and a half of the Forsaken acting on their own, and generally screwing up, the DO begins to crackdown on the Forsaken, bringing Demandred into line, and having Shaidar Haran give the *'gars their orders. He puts out his commandment to *not* kill Rand. COS: The DO's crackdown on the Forsaken continues, with Cyndane and Moghedien being mindtrapped, and Moridin and Shaidar Harran spying on Sammael. The *'gars move into position. POD: Rand announces his plan to cleanse Saidin. Within the week, four Ashaman -- at least one with orders from the Forsaken - and Dashiva/Osan'gar launch an attack on Rand. WH: At the Forsaken Tea Party, Cyndane reveals part of Rand's plan to cleanse Saidin. Moridin orders the others to stop Rand at whatever the cost - the restriction on killing Rand is revoked. Suddenly four unknown armies appear in Andor, and at least one in Tear. While this could all be coincidental, foreshadowing two unrelated subplots involving more rebellions against the Good Guys, I think there's a good chance this could be the start of the Second Shadow War. I really hope it's the start of the Second Shadow War, because I doubt I could sit through two rebellions in the next book, both taking away from forward plot movement. Interestingly, while typing this out, it occurred to me that the situation resembles a game of Go - the real world equivalent of Stones. I've seen games of Go that match the pattern described, with black controlling three of the outer edges, and white forming a peninsula jutting into the middle of the board. LOONY THEORY: Thom's skill at Stones is vital to Rand planning against the Dark One. Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/ Before you buy. Article: 458836 of rec.arts.sf.written.robert-jordan Path: uchinews!vixen.cso.uiuc.edu!howland.erols.net!cpk-news-hub1.bbnplanet.com!news.gtei.net!news.maxwell.syr.edu!nntp2.deja.com!nnrp1.deja.com!not-for-mail From: Mr. Whitecloak Newsgroups: rec.arts.sf.written.robert-jordan Subject: Re: Military Movements, the DO's Plan, and More (LONG) Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 00:10:03 GMT Organization: Deja.com - Before you buy. Lines: 58 Message-ID: <8uv8km$4ro$1@nnrp1.deja.com> References: <8uurqf$pn2$1@nnrp1.deja.com> NNTP-Posting-Host: 129.63.96.144 X-Article-Creation-Date: Thu Nov 16 00:10:03 2000 GMT X-Http-User-Agent: Mozilla/4.08 [en] (Win95; U ;Nav) X-Http-Proxy: 1.0 x71.deja.com:80 (Squid/1.1.22) for client 129.63.96.144 X-MyDeja-Info: XMYDJUIDmr_whitecloak Xref: uchinews rec.arts.sf.written.robert-jordan:458836 In article <8uurqf$pn2$1@nnrp1.deja.com>, Trinity wrote: > After finishing WH, I thought it'd be interesting to look at the > current military movements in Randland, and what they might > indicate about the Dark One's plans. > > Spoilers Ahead > > G > r > a > e > n > d > e > l > > k > i > l > l > e > d > > A > s > m > o > d > e > a > > n not so sure, anymore > 18) Children of Light: Maybe 1-2000 men, wandering around Gheladan > and Amadacia, they've been mentioned several times in POD and > WH, although they haven't appeared on screen since COS. With Amadacia > mostly under Seanchan control, they have no support base. The numbers we are given for the horse army is 5-10 thousand, warder approved. This jives with Balwer's report that the Children took part in the battle, lost a few guys, but withdrew in good order with most of their strength. Sorry people, those irrascable Whitecloaks are very much still In It. -- Mr. Whitecloak Hurray for Our Side! Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/ Before you buy.