<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class="">On Aug 7, 2020, at 02:27, Ivan Sergio Borgonovo <<a href="mailto:mail@webthatworks.it" class="">mail@webthatworks.it</a>> wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><div class=""><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: LucidaGrande; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">Can somebody explain what heard immunity without a vaccine really means?</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: LucidaGrande; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;" class=""></div></blockquote><div><br class=""></div>There are two possibilities:</div><div><br class=""></div><div>A. Infect a sufficiently large percentage of the population. Thanks to the Brooklyn Purim study (previously posted on the list, but I can repost the link), we know that’s *at least* 61% seropositive in dense urban areas.</div><div><br class=""></div><div>B. Designer antibodies! Which has never been tried before.</div><div><br class=""></div><div><a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/designer-antibodies-could-battle-covid-19-vaccines-arrive" class="">https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/designer-antibodies-could-battle-covid-19-vaccines-arrive</a> </div><div><br class=""></div><div>So option A is really really REALLY bad, and here’s why. There are, among other things:</div><div><br class=""></div><div>1. Lung anomalies, even in *asymptomatic* patients (21 of 37): </div><div><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6" class="">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6</a> </div><div><br class=""></div><div>(this has been found elsewhere, but it would only be found where asymptomatic patients were hospitalized, so in practice South Korea, Singapore, and China where we’d see the papers)</div><div><br class=""></div><div>2. Heart anomalies.</div><div><a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/cardiology/articlepdf/2768916/jamacardiology_puntmann_2020_oi_200057.pdf" class="">https://jamanetwork.com/journals/cardiology/articlepdf/2768916/jamacardiology_puntmann_2020_oi_200057.pdf</a></div><div><br class=""></div><div></div><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div></div></blockquote><blockquote type="cite" class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div>Taken together, we demonstrate cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%) with recent COVID-19 illness, independent of pre-existing conditions, severity and overall course of the acute illness, and the time from the original diagnosis. These findings indicate the need for ongoing investigation of the long-term cardiovascular consequences of COVID-19.</div></blockquote></blockquote><div class=""><br class=""></div>3. Brain anomalies (started this thread).<br class=""><div><br class=""></div><div><br class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class=""><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: LucidaGrande; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">Waiting people die and get ill, just slower? or faster?</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: LucidaGrande; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;" class=""></div></blockquote><div><br class=""></div>Pretty much.</div><div><br class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class=""><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: LucidaGrande; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">Slower is better than nothing since it won't put too much stress on health care infrastructure and will probably lower death rates etc...</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: LucidaGrande; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;" class=""></div></blockquote><div><br class=""></div>I don’t think nerfing hundreds of thousands of brains, hearts, and lungs is good public health.</div><div><br class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class=""><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: LucidaGrande; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">But considering that at this point there is no reliable scientific evidence that the virus is "weakening", up to my understanding "herd immunity" is just another way to say: let it be.</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: LucidaGrande; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;" class=""></div></blockquote><div><br class=""></div>One of the big problems is that we haven’t yet come to terms with the actual fact that this is fecal-oral. It’s generally believed that coated RNA viruses won’t survive into the gut (for reasons I don’t understand), but it’s worth realizing that most coronaviruses are fecal-oral, and SARS-CoV-2 is fecal-oral in bats.</div><div><br class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class=""><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: LucidaGrande; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">If you check the death rates of the most hit zones (eg. Bergamo where you could have reasonably reliable data and a reasonably good health care system), and you project them worldwide you're talking about millions of dead people.</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: LucidaGrande; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;" class=""></div></blockquote><div><br class=""></div>Depends on what the case fatality rate winds up being, especially once health care workers start falling. Once that infrastructure goes, we’re all screwed.</div><div><br class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class=""><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: LucidaGrande; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">Considering that worldwide there are at least 6M active cases and there are countries that seem not to care, it's a bit annoying to keep quarantining your country because someone else didn't do its homework properly and then complain about China.</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: LucidaGrande; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;" class=""><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: LucidaGrande; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;" class=""><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: LucidaGrande; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">Especially as Rick says it has been proved by several countries there is a better working strategy.</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: LucidaGrande; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;" class=""></div></blockquote></div><br class=""><div class="">Certainly beats this one:</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><a href="https://twitter.com/rachel/status/1289410966136864770" class="">https://twitter.com/rachel/status/1289410966136864770</a></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">Deirdre</div></body></html>