<html><head></head><body><div class="ydp134b38c2yahoo-style-wrap" style="font-family:Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:13px;"><div></div>
<div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">Rick,</div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">You can re-post the following to your seemingly invulnerable neighbor. Meanwhile, soon I will be posting my data of the curve.</div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">BTW, any word from Reuben? He can be annoying at times, but I hope he is still alive and will be back on the list at some time.<br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">I have been tracking the rate of cases in Santa Clara County. It started as an exponential growth doubling almost every 2 days in February. Exponential growth goes like 2, 4, 8, 16, ... 256, 512 ... <span>65536 ...<span>16777216 until it runs out of people infect.<br></span></span></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><span><span><br></span></span></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><span><span>Starting in February, Gov N and county health departments started giving advise, then orders and almost total lock-down.</span></span><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">Starting with "wash your hands and don't sneeze" locally the rate of new cases has slowed. Now appears to be taking more than 2 weeks to double the number of cases. The medical people are still very busy, but they are no longer bracing for a tsunami to hit.</div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">Meanwhile NYC did not put the orders in place as soon. Most boroughs of NYC have more cases and more deaths than all of CA. Thank you Gavin.<br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">There are many many things I don't like about the Gov and his politics, but health and safety of people has to be #1. Yes it is a major problem that people are out of work and many stores are closed. However a financial meltdown does not compare to being dead. Even if you are young and feel invulnerable, this is a PUBLIC HEALTH problem. We all need to do these many unpleasant things to protect our neighbors and co-workers and their families and children and grandparents. <br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div><br></div>
</div><div id="ydp659b1fcyahoo_quoted_8018895718" class="ydp659b1fcyahoo_quoted">
<div style="font-family:'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:13px;color:#26282a;">
<div>
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020, 8:49:53 PM PDT, Rick Moen <rick@linuxmafia.com> wrote:
</div>
<div><br></div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Naturally, the guy doubled down. I shouldn't cross-post his comment <br clear="none">(which flops around taking bizarre potshots and then belly-flops into<br clear="none">his desired conclusion that everything/everyone should immediately<br clear="none">return to status quo ante, except that old folks and those with medical<br clear="none">vulnerabilities should sequester themselves, while everyone else <br clear="none">resumes carefree virus community transmission). So, I won't cross-post<br clear="none">it, but here's my second-level response:<br clear="none"><br clear="none"><br clear="none"><br clear="none">The reason I included a direct link to CDC's study of all flu seasons<br clear="none">from 1976 to 2007 is so you could see CDC's data for yourself: As I<br clear="none">said, 23,607 was the arithmetic mean of all of those 32 years' actual<br clear="none">flu death counts across the USA. For the record, the lowest year was<br clear="none">1986 with 3,349 flu deaths. The highest year was 2003 with 48,614 flu<br clear="none">deaths.<br clear="none"><br clear="none">The current flu season is indeed likely to be unusually deadly, for a<br clear="none">number of reasons including a mismatch between the inactivated virus<br clear="none">vaccine and the predominant strains. In light of that fact, I confess<br clear="none">I'm _utterly_ mystified by your confidence that CDC's current-year<br clear="none">projected number of flu deaths "is more accurate" than CDC's own 32-year<br clear="none">average of real, historical flu-death data. That conviction of yours,<br clear="none">alone, would seem to require a powerful lot of explaining.<br clear="none"><br clear="none">As to whether the NY State Health Department's figures qualify as "hard<br clear="none">data" or not, you'll have to take up your beef with them on that.<br clear="none">Personally, I rather suspect they know exactly what they're talking<br clear="none">about, but you're of course welcome to make up your own mind.<br clear="none"><br clear="none">Your notion that CDC has the power to determine local reporting criteria<br clear="none">for COVID-19 deaths merely by declaring policy for related International<br clear="none">Classification of Diseases (ICD) code classifications is... I want to<br clear="none">say, fanciful? Sorry, that's just not how any of the local authorities<br clear="none">work.<br clear="none"><br clear="none">And, um, "negating [my] argument about undercounting"? I'm sorry, but I<br clear="none">really don't understand how you reached that conclusion unless it<br clear="none">involved pretty much disregarding the process details I mentioned,<br clear="none">notably the key role of the grievous shortage of testing.<br clear="none"><br clear="none">No, the models were not wrong. On the evidence, the new factor is that<br clear="none">social distancing bent the curve, which is what the models suggested was<br clear="none">possible. And that is why exponential growth abated. Surely the causal<br clear="none">relationship there is obvious, isn't it?<br clear="none"><br clear="none">You are correct that I didn't address your economic advocacy argument.<br clear="none">That was not within the scope of what drew my curiosity and impelled me<br clear="none">to explain why all of this is inherently, fundamentally different from<br clear="none">seasonal flu, contrary to your primary thesis -- i.e., to politely<br clear="none">explain just how badly mistaken that notion was, and some of the reasons<br clear="none">why. For the rest, as I said, I didn't come to "debate" you or anyone<br clear="none">else. However, you're perfectly welcome to seek that with someone else,<br clear="none">of course.<div class="ydp659b1fcyqt9090782892" id="ydp659b1fcyqtfd41737"><br clear="none"><br clear="none">_______________________________________________<br clear="none">conspire mailing list<br clear="none"><a shape="rect" href="mailto:conspire@linuxmafia.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">conspire@linuxmafia.com</a><br clear="none"><a shape="rect" href="http://linuxmafia.com/mailman/listinfo/conspire" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://linuxmafia.com/mailman/listinfo/conspire</a><br clear="none"></div></div>
</div>
</div></body></html>