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<div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">Thanks for the pointer to Financial Times, especially the graphs with lines for "doubling in 1 day", "doubling in 3 days", etc.<br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"> Personally I like graphs. Everyday the TV news gives a number. But they don't mention the day before. And without that it's difficult to see the trend lines.</div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">Anyone know where I could get historic (like last week) for Bay Area? I suppose I could laboriously search for one day at a time...<br></div><div><br></div>
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On Tuesday, March 24, 2020, 2:08:34 AM PDT, Nick Moffitt <nick@zork.net> wrote:
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<div>On 24Mar2020 12:53am (-0700), Rick Moen wrote:<br clear="none">> It's really rather academic whether the confirmed case number is 1900 or<br clear="none">> 2300 or 3800, etc. The point is:<br clear="none"><br clear="none">The confirmed cases metric is really hamstrung by our inconsistent testing regimen. I don't trust those numbers, and agree they're only useful for comparing rate of change against the deaths figures (which are more accurately recorded, even if post-mortem testing is also questionable).<br clear="none"><br clear="none">> Meanwhile, the best estimates I've been hearing of the doubling time is<br clear="none">> about three days (absent effective suppression techniques such as <br clear="none">> consistent social distancing and the rest).<br clear="none">> <br clear="none">> Exponential. Growth.<br clear="none">> Three. Days.<br clear="none">> <br clear="none">> Concentrate on that. And on the fact that reported confirmed case<br clear="none">> numbers are _inherently_ a drastic undercount.<br clear="none"><br clear="none">The Financial Times here in London (I tend to cycle past their offices between my office and Borough Market to get lunch/coffee grounds) have finally opened up their data analysis page to the public without paywall:<br clear="none"><br clear="none"> <a shape="rect" href="https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest</a><br clear="none"><br clear="none">They changed the dashed lines to no longer show the "33% increase in deaths per day" to marking out doubling times in days, which is a more useful set of landmarks.<br clear="none"><br clear="none">The stars on those graphs also indicate when a nation called an official lockdown/quarantine order. The UK, like NZ, announced a few days in advance: we don't have anything taking legal effect until Friday.<div class="ydpd9dad156yqt0658828109" id="ydpd9dad156yqtfd45337"><br clear="none"><br clear="none">_______________________________________________<br clear="none">conspire mailing list<br clear="none"><a shape="rect" href="mailto:conspire@linuxmafia.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">conspire@linuxmafia.com</a><br clear="none"><a shape="rect" href="http://linuxmafia.com/mailman/listinfo/conspire" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://linuxmafia.com/mailman/listinfo/conspire</a><br clear="none"></div></div>
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