[conspire] Today in Trump cult stupidity (kills your 401ks goodbye)

[Rick Moen]

Thread on Xitter:  Turns out, the "reciprocal tarrifs" are not on any 
rational basis, just trade deficit -- and this blunder was not even 
one Trump's team of third-rate dumbasses conjured up themselves,  
It appears they outsourced the entire matter to ChatGPT, and then 
didn't even fix the output, let alone think about it.

https://xcancel.com/wwwojtekk/status/1907580634974884311

It really, really is that stupid.

1.  Trump does not understand what a trade deficit is.
https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/1jq2viv/trumps_list_of_tarrifs_that_countries_were/
2.  The trade deficits he's worked up about won't get closed, because
the other countries are rather likely to boycott the US on principle.
3.  A lot of Trump's numbers are just wacky and wrong, too.
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trump-goes-crazy-on-trade/
4.  The so-called "reciprocal tariffs" basically punish trade.  The more
trade you do with the US, the more you're punished.  Countries like Iran
that do little US trade get relatively rewarded.
5.  And yes, there is some evidence that Trump's third-raters couldn't
even be bothered to make their own blunders, but rather outsourced the
job to ChatGPT and did no checking or editing.





Wojtek Kopczuk @wwwojtekk
4h
Confirmed, chatgpt... exactly what the dumbest kid in the class would
do, without edits

   ChatGPT (was queried):  What would be an easy way to calculate the
   tariffs that should be imposed on other countries so that the US is
   on even-playing fields when it comes to trade deficit?  Set 
   minimum at 10%

   Answer:

   Calculating tariffs to balance the trade deficit is a complex
   economic problem and cannot be accurately reduced to a simple formula.
   However, if we are looking for a basic approach, one way to
   conceptualize it is by considering the trade deficit between the US and
   a trading partner.

   Simplified approach:

   1. Calculate Trade Deficit Ratio:

                         Trade Deficit with Country
   Trade Deficit Ratio = ---------------------------
                         Total Trade with Country

   1. Tariff Calculation:

   Tariff = max(10%, Trade Deficit Ratio x 100%)






Destiny | Steven Bonnell II @TheOmniLiberal
6h
I think they asked ChatGPT to calculate the tariffs from other
countries, which is why the tariffs make absolutely no fucking sense.

They're simply dividing the trade deficit we have with a country with
our imports from that country, or using 10%, whichever is greater.





Hellenic Koraki @_h0nk_h0nk_
1h
Replying to @wwwojtekk
Read Oren Cass
Apr 3, 2025 · 2:27 AM UTC





Ammar Farooq
@ammar_farooq
3h
Replying to @wwwojtekk
Was done by the CEA apparently


Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome
4h
WH has now confirmed: this is insane  

https://nypost.com/2025/04/02/us-news/trump-slaps-at-least-10-tariffs-on-all-imports-in-declaration-of-economic-independence-half-of-what-they-could-be/

   The specific "reciprocal" tariff rate was half of the current
   trade imbalance because "the president is lenient and he wants
   to be kind to the world", a Trump aide told reporters.

   "The numbers [for tariffs by country] have been calculated by the
   Council of Economic Advisors based on the concept that the trade
   deficit that we have with any given country is the sum of all 
   trade practices, the sum of all cheating", a White House official
   said, calling it "the most fair thing in the world".





Wade Zhou @wade_zhou
4h
Replying to @wwwojtekk
$20 says they actually chatgpt'd this one
Apr 3, 2025 · 12:11 AM UTC




Bennett Bernard @BennettBernard7
4h
Replying to @wwwojtekk
So the “reciprocal” tariffs are really reciprocal because we’ve applied
them inverted?
Apr 3, 2025 · 12:24 AM UTC


Cutvin @Cutvin
3h
Replying to @BennettBernard7 @wwwojtekk
No. The calculation of the "tariff" being applied by the other nations
is just false. It is beginning with the assumption that the bilateral
deficit is because unfair trade practices, and so offsetting these
imagined unfair practices.
Apr 3, 2025 · 12:55 AM UTC




Bennett Bernard @BennettBernard7
3h
Replying to @Cutvin @wwwojtekk
Right. It’s not a calculation of a “tariff” at all. But it hurts ones
that engage in more trade.
Apr 3, 2025 · 12:59 AM UTC



Cutvin @Cutvin
3h
Replying to @BennettBernard7 @wwwojtekk
Thing is, in Trump's mind "bilateral trade" matters. To economists, it
does not, because all trade is multilateral. Krugman wrote about this.
Apr 3, 2025 · 1:00 AM UTC



Daniel @itsmedanielfc
2h
Replying to @Cutvin @BennettBernard7 @wwwojtekk
It's akin to you being mad at the supermarket because you have a deficit
with them. And then your company being mad at you because they have a
deficit with you.
Apr 3, 2025 · 1:57 AM UTC




Jeremy Chrysler @jeremychrysler
4h
Replying to @wwwojtekk
I suspect his is also why countries like Iran, which we basically do not
trade with, gets off so easily. 
No trade = no trade deficit!

Ken Gardner @KenGardner11
5h
Iran got the special "only 10%" tariff. Israeli, who eliminated all
tariffs for US goods a few days ago, got the 17% tariff.

Make it make sense.
Apr 2, 2025 · 10:48 PM UTC




baroness @navium_exuro
5h
Replying to @KenGardner11
I can't. I'm sorry.
Apr 2, 2025 · 10:48 PM UTC




Fascist Russian Asset @SamanthaPfaff
5h
Replying to @KenGardner11
You can't make sense of what an insane person does.
Apr 2, 2025 · 10:53 PM UTC



Ken Gardner @KenGardner11
5h
Replying to @DastDn
Yep. A lot of people have now figured out the secret sauce, and it is as
incredibly dumb as you can imagine.
Apr 2, 2025 · 10:54 PM UTC




RRice @drFoxcroft
2h
Replying to @KenGardner11
His rates aren't reciprocal, nor based on their tariffs.  He's basing
them on trade deficit. He believes trade deficits mean they're
"cheating"

(tradeDeficit/totalImported)/2

Israel.
($7.4B trade deficit /  $22.2B total imported from Israel)/2 = 17%
tariff

Which is insane.
Apr 3, 2025 · 2:26 AM UTC




Ken Gardner @KenGardner11
57m
Replying to @drFoxcroft
Agreed.
Apr 3, 2025 · 3:40 AM UTC




Paul Rizzo @PaulRiz504
3h
Replying to @wwwojtekk
Fucking 2 trillion wiped off equity markets because they asked AI what
to do......
Apr 3, 2025 · 1:05 AM UTC



Andrew @Hootnanny9
3h
Replying to @wwwojtekk
This would explain why Heard Island gets 10%, it’s a barren landscape
with zero population, but a territory of Australia.

Surprised they didn’t carve up Antartica. 
Apr 3, 2025 · 12:58 AM UTC