[conspire] COVID at the end of 2021

[Rick Moen]

Quoting Paul Zander (paulz at ieee.org):

>  Yet another facet of the messed up messaging is this question:  I have symptoms that might be COVID-19 what should I as an individual do for my own health?
> A month ago, I noticed a "scratchy" sensation in my throat and wondered what to do. Some web-sites discussed the similarity of symptoms of colds, flu and COVID-19.  OK, suppose might be COVID, what to do next?  

My rundown on 2021-12-31 did try to address that.

---<begin>---

Individual view:  You're probably going to have a dance with Omicron.
Here's an excellent pragmatic guide, to how to handle that:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/12/omicron-breakthrough-vaccine-testing/621014/
And here's how to distinguish mild-COVID from cold from flu:
https://whdh.com/news/do-you-have-a-cold-the-flu-or-covid-19-experts-explain-how-to-tell-the-difference/
[...]
If you do end up needing to isolate, California DPH's isolation
recommendations are saner than the now-much-mocked new CDC ones:
https://deadline.com/2021/12/california-covid-quarantine-isolation-guidelines-1234903013/

---<end>---

First link (dtd. Dec. 15th) conveys the practical tips of someone who
tested positive around Thanksgiving -- sorting out how to implement the
somewhat vague official guidance in real-world terms.

Second link is as I described.  Third link is the isolation guidelines
(from California, not the CDC) that you should follow if tested
positive.

Deirdre followed up my post with a highly pragmatic one of her own about
why to start taking both an H1 histamine blocker (e.g., loratadine) and
H2 histamine blocker (e.g., famotidine) if you think you've been
exposed, without waiting for test results.  These are over-the-counter
antihistimines, thus pretty harmless provided they don't, say, make you
drowsy and you need to drive.  (FWIW, loratadine doesn't make _me_
drowsy, but it's a possible side-effect.)

> Most websites gave advice about testing.  Get tested right away.  Wait 2 days to get tested.   

Study carefully the time-sequence graph Deirdre tweeted, about when
following exposure a patient is likely to test positive in a "lateral
flow" aka rapid test, and how long following exposure for a PCR test.
https://twitter.com/deirdresm/status/1477004792861900803

The point is kind-of subtle, so pay close attention.  And here's a
more-detailed (and larger) graph in the thread Deirdre linked to:
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1472024457640394756/photo/1
(The graph presupposes a vaccinated person.)

Notice that rapid tests will tend to show positive, if at all, on
average about 3.5 to 9.5 days after exposure, and (if symptoms occur at
all) on average between a day before symptoms and about the final day of
symptoms.  Test before that window, and you'l get a false negative.
Test after that window, and you'll get a negative that is probably true,
but will not know from the test whether you _were_ infective previously
or not.

The third link I posted, at deadline.com, is a little perfunctory, so
here is the direct link to CA DPH's guidelines.  
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/Guidance-on-Isolation-and-Quarantine-for-COVID-19-Contact-Tracing.aspx

A recurring theme seems to be "test on day 5".

> Self-quarantine.  Right, I live by myself.  I had been planning to go
> to the grocery store the next day.  How might this work?

Delivery services or getting help from a friend, I imagine.


Report from the field:  Today was my day to do some periodic medical 
stuff, so I made a trip over to Kaiser Permanente Redwood City.  The
conga line of cars waiting for COVID testing was _amazingly_ long.  
At a glance, it seemed to go on for blocks.  Inside the clinic building,
the COVID vaccination line looked busy, but not amazingly so like the 
testing one.

I was super-nice to all the medical people I interacted with, under the
assumption that many of them are a bit stressed.