[conspire] Clocks, vaccines, boosters

[Rick Moen]

Quoting Dire Red (deirdre at deirdre.net):

> I'll get to that, but first I want to discuss the development of the
> modern anti-vax movement, which I'm convinced is tied to the ball
> dropping on the opioid and methamphetamine epidemics.

Folks, you would scarce believe the amount of research and careful
pondering that went into Deirdre's post.  _Do_ follow her links -- 
but take seriously her comment about one of them being strong stuff,
hard to look at, hard to read.

Deirdre and I had talked about _The Atlantic's_ article, which I had
found sobering and eye-opening.  She mentioned the key transition (circa
2005) from making meth in modest quantities from ephedrine to making it
super-cheaply in prodigious quantities from P2P (Phenyl-2-Propanone aka
phenylacetone):  If you watched "Breaking Bad", that was an important
plot point.  In the series, high school chemistry teacher Walter White
figured out a novel P2P-type meth-making recipe that resulted in
super-pure and distinctively blue meth ("Blue Sky").  In the series,
White had repeated troubles finding illegal sources for methylamine,
which he needed to do reductive amination (conversion of a carbonyl
group to an amine) of phenylacetone to create methamphetamine.  This was
a scriptwriting invention for dramatic purposes.  In reality, as 
_The Atlantic's_ writer says, there are myriad ways to chemically
produce P2P and then methamphetamine, relying on nothing but lawfully
acquirable (if very toxic and nasty) supplies.  

So, the rise of P2P-based meth was a disaster for law enforcement, as
interdiction methods failed, prices dropped, and quantities and sources
went through the roof.  At the same time, it was a disaster for addicts, 
because it's radically different in its effects from traditional
ephedrine-based meth:  It's a long-term neurotoxin, doing cognitive
damage that in many cases never goes away:  violent paranoia,
hallucinations, conspiracy theories, isolation, massive memory loss,
jumbled speech -- a steep deterioration in mental health that makes the
user unemployable, homeless, and asocial.

Into this came the opioid crisis, fueled by Perdue Pharma's cynical
pushing of OxyContin, which led to other opioids.  When the Feds lowered
the boom on opioid users _and_ on any doctor willing to prescribe
serious amounts of opioids (such as is required to, oh, deal with
chronic pain[1]), that put a wedge between opioid-seekers and doctors.
The former were thus forced to mutual-help and wacko-help measures via
(primarily) Facebook (as Deirdre said) -- because doctors were _and are_ 
motivated to literally cut opioid-needing patients off and break off
communication, to save their licences. 

OxyContin -> fentanyl -> street fentanyl -> ephedrine meth -> P2P meth 

Boom.  You've just doubled the homeless population, torn the frayed
safety net (having hordes of new violent psychotics dumped on doctors
and social workers is Bad), and created an entire delusional,
anti-science, anti-knowledge, disinformation-vulnerable, conspiratorial
subculture centered on social media.

The further connections Deirdre _meant_ to get to, but ran out of time:
That delusional, anti-science, anti-knowledge subculture within social 
media naturally produced (or rather greatly inflated) the antivax
movement.  Also, we're pretty sure, if that ravingly crazy subculture
hadn't developed, no (significant levels of) MAGA disinformation bushwah.


[1] 7.4% of Americans live with daily intractible pain.  See Deirdre's 
footnote #1 with CDC briefing paper.