[conspire] (forw) Re: Correction

[Texx]

On Fri, Mar 27, 2020 at 5:12 PM Rick Moen <rick at linuxmafia.com> wrote:

> Quoting Texx (texxgadget at gmail.com):
>
> [pond puzzle:]
>
> > Putting on sysadmin hat, the question should be asked WHY do they get
> this
> > problem wrong?
>
> The most common hypothesis is that people are so accustomed to _linear_
> trends that they picture those even where you stress that this is
> something dramatically different.
>
> To elaborate on that, human intuition was shaped pretty well be natural
> selection to avoid getting eaten on the savannah, but consistently
> misleads people in a more-complex world.
>
> Here's another puzzle to make the point:  In a pre-SARS-CoV-2 scenario,
> you have a room where a random assortment of people gather.  How many
> people must enter the room before there is a > 50% likelihood of at
> least two of those people sharing the same birthday?  Take a guess based
> on intuition, and then I'll be glad to explain why your intuition on
> this puzzle (_and mine too, and everyone else's_) is wildly wrong.
>

For starters, most people (Including me) have NO IDEA how to START on this
problem.
(Refer to my past rants about how math is incorrectly taught)
As a result, we would not get it "wrong" per se' because we would not be
able to start on the problem in the first place.
In that case it would be a DIFFERNT wrong (wrong because the job wasnt done
VS wrong by coming up with bad numbers).

I believe I have read about this, and while I dont remember the solution, I
do remember that its counter intuitive.
(Ricks hint about backwards backs me up on the non intuition)



> > If its doubling every day then going back a day its halving.
> > That known, its quite easy to find 50% 25% 12.5% .625% etc.
>
> Be careful:  Like the epidemial concept of R-zero, the basic
> reproduction number, doubling rate is _completely_ context-dependent.
> It is not an inherent, fixed property of a disease organism, but rather
> a value observed specific to a time and place that depends on local
> conditions (including population density, part of the reason NYC is in
> such trouble).
>

What I was describing cannot be used to predict future.
Its is ONLY useful in looking back after the whole disaster is over.
For parlortime chats about math after supper it works, because the question
originates AFTER the pond is full.

Of course, the un asked question is why are otherwise intelligent people
wasting time with pond scum?  (snicker)

I agree that the published numbers are a GROSS undercount (your choice
which meaning of the word to choose, both apply)
I suspect this conversation has not covered a few things.

If one has the symptoms, can we just accept that as the positive rather
than waiting for the lab?
If they have the symptoms and they are severe, they need to be treated
anyway and will have the same load on healthcare.

It would be great to have good numbers like S Korea, but we dont and I
doubt we ever will.
That horse has gone.

The negatives are nice, but if you only test once, how do you detect
whether that person gets it later without repeated testing of the negatives?
(This is the key from S Korea)

By the undercounted rate for NY, 5 10 15 20 25 30 37 44.  Thats SOME curve!

Also not covered in this thread are the 2nd & third bounces.

People being people, the lockdown will eventually end and as soon as it
ends, bad behaviour will return, feeding a 2nd bounce and
likely a 3rd.

I was expecting Trump to lose if this thing keeps going into fall now Im
not sure.
Its looking like he can use legal action to prevent stations from
airing video of things he REALLY SAID.

Hes upset about socialism, but he wants to censor the press?

My father says "America LOVES a GOOD train wreck!"

Its a pitty Irwin Allen isnt still around.  He would have LOVED this thing!



> > Everyone NEEDS a LOG!
>
> I'm not sure it did much for Margaret Lanterman.
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BloTVTziM6c


I had hoped that you would think "Ren & Stimpy"!

R "Texx" Woodworth
Sysadmin, E-Postmaster, IT Molewhacker
"Face down, 9 edge 1st, roadkill on the information superdata highway..."
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