[conspire] Presidential primary election notes revised

[Rick Moen]

The last day to change voter registration before CA's June 7th primary,
I wrote:

> I typically do a personal analysis for my family, with
> recommendations, for each upcoming election.  This time, I'm also
> making it publicly available:
> http://linuxmafia.com/~rick/election-2016-06-07.html
> 
> Page includes in a cross-partisan spirit some ideas about tactical
> voting possibilities that apply irrespective of the reader's political
> views, so I hope it will be of wide interest.  
[...]

Daniel Gimpelevich, who works as a poll station worker (thanks!),
pointed me to updated information about write-in candidates:  In my
initial version, I had correctly observed that write-ins _still_ needed
to be 'certified' by the Secretary of State before voting for them would
be valid, and that I couldn't find any list of certified write-ins on
the CA Secretary of State's Web site, so I guessed there weren't any.
Daniel said he as an election worker saw one on (I think he said)
'sfvoter.org'.  I searched on all sorts of variations on 'sfvoter'.
Most promising match I found was sfgov.org, where (following links) I
found
http://sfgov.org/elections/sites/default/files/Documents/ElectionsArchives/2016/June/J16_CertifiedWrite-ins.pdf

Searching some of the write-in names on that list, I (finally) found the
CA Secretary of State's matching information -- and fleshed out /
corrected http://linuxmafia.com/~rick/election-2016-06-07.html to tell
the _full_ tale a bit better about whom you could vote for, why, and
what the rules are and where they come from.


Cutting to the chase:  What's this all about, then?

1.  I find that public information about the elections is dreadful, 
and figured I have a Web server; I can do something about this.  My page
is accordingly intended to teach what was going on with the June 7th
California primary, with no bullshit, written in a way equally useful to
local voters irrespective of their political viewpoints.  

2.  In particular, both the Official Voter Information Pamphlets and
press coverage left critical issues mysterious:  Regional Measure AA
required a 2/3 margin of approval to pass:  Why?  I figured it out, and
then documented the reason why (1996's Proposition 218), and exactly
what's going on.  How are delegates awarded by the two major parties
based on voting for the presidential primary?  The Official Voter
Information Pamphlet and press won't tell you -- which is a serious
problem given that _the whole point_ of the presidential primary is to
pick and seat delegates.  I do my best to answer that question.

Despite best intentions and some study, by the way, I still cannot tell
you -- for example -- how many pledged delegates will be chosen in
California for each major party candidate.  Again, this information gap
is a little mind-blowing, as delegate selection is the _entire point_ of
a primary.

Anyway, the press talked endlessly about who 'won', about 'momentum', 
about pretty much everything except bottom-line real outcomes.  _My_
page cuts the bullshit and talks outcomes, strategies, realities.
Things that matter.  Like:  All that matters for presidential primaries
is delegates, just as all that matters for a presidential general
election is votes by members of the Electoral College.

3.  The page was a trial run for analysis of future elections.
November's California ballot is likely to have a huge number of ballot
propositions, for example, maybe 18 or so.  I've already started
assessing them as they qualify.


http://linuxmafia.com/~rick/election-2016-06-07.html now includes
_outcomes_ for all local races.  One thing I noticed:
The minor parties were _utterly_ insignificant in the presidential primary.
This surprised me.  I thought surely Green or Peace and Freedom had a
major presence in California.  But no.  Consider these numbers:


Total votes cast in the California primary:  8.5 million, est. (49% turnout).

Votes cast for each minor party, and % of the total:
American Independent Party:  30,502 votes, 0.34%
Green Party:                 10,123 votes, 0.11%
Libertarian Party:           21,495 votes, 0.24%
Peace and Freedom Party:      3,644 votes, 0.04%

Wow, that's tiny.  How the self-imagined-to-be-mighty have fallen.

Of the four minor parties qualified for the California ballot, one
(Green Party) will hold its nominating convention in August, one
(Libertarian) remarkably held its nominating convention _before the
primaries to choose delegates were over_, and two (AIP and Peace and
Freedom) seem too moribund to hold a convention.  Like, they're sort-of
kidding about this 'primary election' thing.



Because California recently followed Oregon's example and enacted a
'motor voter' law where people getting driver's licences / state IDs 
automatically get registered to vote but with _no party preference_ 
(NPP) by default, it is likely that soon the number of voters registered
without party preference ('voting independent') will outnumber
registered Republicans.

As of May 23rd:
Total California registered voters:  17,915,053
Total California Democratic voters:   8,029,130
Total California Republican voters:   4,888,771
Total California NPP voters:          4,177,648
Total California AIP voters:            457,173
Total California Libertarian voters:    115,189
Total California Green voters:           77,868
Total California P&FP voters:            71,326
Total California misc. voters:           97,948

Because NPP is newly the default outcome state of passive voter
registration, expect it to surpass GOP registration, soon.

Many, including major GOP figured, consider this a serious sign of
disarray for the Republican presence in California.  The GOP statewide
is (apparently) on the verge of becoming uncompetitive (quite a change
for the party that convinced California to vote for George H.W. Bush
over Michael Dukakis in 1988 and carried the state in a long series of
elections (1968-1988), but never since then:
http://www.270towin.com/states/California).


Also very notable has been the immediate slightly weird outcome of the
California top-two voting system, designed to help cure partisan
gridlock in Sacramento and elsewhere by making the primary race more
competitive.   It has been working, very arguably -- but with the
near-term result that often the pair of candidates who advance to the
November general election are _not_ a Democrat and a Republican but
rather two of the same party.  The mix has differed depending on where
in the state -- but definitely moderates are getting more of an edge
statewide.

(I record an example of this in the June 7ths election 'outcome'
write-up:  For the important US Senate race to succeed Barbara Boxer,
Democrat Kamala Harris will advance to the November General Election,
but so will Democrat Loretta Sanchez -- and no Republicans will be on
that ballot.)

I hope my page will be useful, including in the aftermath of the
election -- and intend to do it again, drawing on the lessons of my
studies this time.  I've already started a page for the November
election -- not ready for prime time, yet.

Feedback is very welcome.

(I'm specifically _not_ aiming to advise anyone how to vote, e.g.,
advocacy content is limited to stating my what voting choice is on each
item, clearly marked as such.  The main idea is to help a voter of any
political stance whatsoever understand the election and participate more
intelligently.)