[conspire] Non-partisan explanation of the state presidential primary

[Rick Moen]

A belated summary of California presidential primary results -- again,
aiming for a level of accuracy sadly lacking in all of the major news
coverage, which mostly consisted of meaningless drivel about which
candidates "won".  (That concept is irrelevant, as the election wasn't
winner-take-all statewide for either party.)


On Feb. 6, I wrote:

> Republican Party:
> http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/04/30/schneider.california/
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008#Delegate_selection
> http://www.gop.com/images/2008_Call_FINAL.pdf
> 
> In short:  Each of the 53 congressional districts gets three delegates
> (159 total "district" delegates), and whichever candidate has the
> highest vote count in that district gets all three pledged to him/her.
> Add one "bonus" delegate for California having a Republican governor,
> pledged to the statewide highest-vote-winning candidate on an at-large
> basis.  Add ten at-large delegates for the state as a whole, ditto.  Add
> three party-insider delegates, comprising the state Republican chair and
> the state's two Republican National Committee members.  173 delegates
> total; 170 candidate-pledged, 3 not pledged.  (There are also alternates.)
> 
> National convention will be held Sept. 1-4, 2008 in Minneapolis / St.
> Paul, Minnesota, to select the party's candidates.

Republican primary results:  

John McCain was the highest vote-winner within 48 of the state's 53
Congressional districts.  Mitt Romney was the highest vote-winner in the
other five Congressional districts:  21st (Tulare, Fresno Counties),
42nd (LA, Orange, San Bernardino Counties), 48th (Orange County), 49th
(Riverside, San Diego Counties), and 52nd (San Diego County).

Accordingly, 155 delegates pledged to John McCain were seated:  48 * 3,
plus the 11 unpledged "bonus" and at-large delegates.  15 delegates
pledged to Mitt Romney were seated (5 * 3).  The three unpledged
"superdelegates" were also seated.  

Romney endorsed McCain as of Feb. 14, but in theory his delegates remain
at his direction unless/until he "releases" them.  (However, McCain
already has in his own name a strict majority of delegates nationwide,
so this is of little consequence, as are the three unpledged
"superdelegates".)

Total California delegates:  155 (McCain) + 15 (Romney) + 3 (unpledged) = 173.



> Democratic Party:
> http://www.cadem.org/site/c.jrLZK2PyHmF/b.3615511/
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008#Delegate_selection_rules
> 
> In short:  Each of the 53 congressional districts gets between 3 and 6
> delegates (241 total "district" delegates), who will be selected pledged
> proportionally to the vote count each candidate receives in that
> district, provided the candidate receives at least 15% of the vote
> within that district.  Add 66 "superdelegates" (party dignitaries) 
                      ^ _or_ statewide.
> comprising 32 Democratic National Committee members, 2 Democratic
> Senators, 36 Democratic members of the House of Representatives (less
> four who are already superdelegates because they're DNC members).  
> Add 5 other "add-on" superdelegates, whose nature I've not figured out
> but are probably other party dignitaries.  Add 48 party leaders, pledged
> proportionally to the vote count each candidate receives statewide,
> provided the candidate receives at least 15% of the statewide vote.  81
> at-large regular Democratic voters pledged proportionally to the vote
> count each candidate receives statewide, provided the candidate receives
> at least 15% of the statewide vote.  441 delegates total; 370
> candidate-pledged, 71 not pledged.  (There are also 62 alternatives.)
> 
> National convention will be held August 25-28, 2008 in Denver, Colorado,
> to select the party's candidates.

Democratic primary results:

Obama's Congressional districts by number (Bay Area noted in parens): 
5 delegates each for: #1, 5, 23, 33, 35, 37.
6 delegates each for: #6 (Marin, Sonoma), 8 (San Francisco), 9 (Alameda), 
  14 (San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz), 
Delegate totals:  5*6 + 6*4 = 54 delegates.

Clinton's Congressional districts by number (Bay Area noted in parens): 
3 delegates each for: #20, 47.
4 delegates each for: #2, 3, 11 (Alameda, Contra Costa, San Joaquin, 
  Santa Clara), 16 (Santa Clara), 18, 19, 21, 22, 25, 26, 31, 32, 34, 38, 
  39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 48, 49, 51, 52.
5 delegates each for: #4, 7 (Contra Costa, Solano), 10 (Alameda, Conta Costa, 
  Sacramento, Solano), 13 (Alameda), 15 (Santa Clara), 17 (San Benito, 
  Santa Cruz), 24, 27, 28, 29, 36, 50, 53.
6 delegates each for: #12 (San Francisco, San Mateo), 30.
Delegate totals: 3*2 + 4*26 + 5*13 + 6*2 = 187.

That's 241 "district" delegates total, both candidates.

Both Clinton and Obama received more than 15% of the statewide vote; none
of the other six listed candidates (or eight write-in candidates) reached
that threshold.  Therefore, Clinton and Obama split the 48 party leaders 
+ 81 at-large delegates (= 129) proportional to their respective vote
counts statewide:

Obama:    2,186,662 votes statewide (45.6%), yields 59 statewide delegates.
Clinton:  2,608,184 votes statewide (54.3%), yields 70 statewide delegates.

Totalling per-district delegates, statewide pledged delegates, and
unpledged superdelegates:

Obama:           54  + 59 = 113
Clinton:         187 = 70 = 257
Unpledged "superdelegates":  71
                            ---
Total delegates             441
                            ===