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2.2.3: Who was the old geezer on the barrel watching Carridin's Place in Ebou Dar?

Quite a few mysterious characters were introduced in ACOS. One of these was the old man watching Carridin's palace in Ebou Dar. What do we know about him?

He's old, and quite worse-for-wear: "A scrawny, white-haired fellow lounging nearby in the shade. Mat looked at him questioningly, and he grinned, showing gaps in his teeth. His stooped shoulders and sad weathered face did not fit his fine gray coat. Despite a bit of lace at his neck, he was the very picture of hard times." [ACOS: 14, White Plumes, 282]
He can't remember parts of his past: "His head felt... peculiar... sometimes. Most often when he thought of what he could not remember." [ACOS: 17, The Triumph of Logic, 318]
He's got a lot of knowledge about local DF activity--he knows about "Carridin's pretty little killer," and about the two BA in town. [ACOS: 17: The Triumph of Logic, 319]
He used to be a fighter of some kind, and he's still proficient with knives: "His hands no longer possessed the strength or flexibility for swordwork, but the two long knives he had carried for well over thirty years had surprised more than one swordsman." [ACOS: 17: The Triumph of Logic, 319]
He's working on some kind of deadline: "He did not have much time left, but it was all he did have." [ACOS: 17: The Triumph of Logic, 319]

So, is he somebody we've heard of before? Maybe not, but here are some speculations as to his identity:

Jain Farstrider--the age is right, as is the memory problem (when Jain visited the Ogier, his mind was befuddled). See also section 2.4.4, the Jain section.
Elyas Machera--Not likely, Elyas was in good shape when we last saw him in TEOTW (apart from some flesh wounds). He certainly wasn't feeble like the old guy. Plus, Elyas doesn't show any inclination to frequent cities. Unlike Perrin, he is comfortable with being a wolfbrother; he wouldn't LIKE not being able to feel the wolves, as would be the case in a city. Furthermore, Elyas uses one knife, not two. Finally, Elyas appears in TPOD, in Ghealdan, which is a long walk from Ebou Dar.
Geofram Bornhald--If Geofram survived the battle at Falme, he could certainly have sustained such injuries to make him be in as bad a shape as the old man in question. Furthermore, he'd have reason to be paying attention to Carridin, considering the way their relationship stood when they parted in TGH. OTOH, the old man seems to have been unable to handle a sword for 30 years. Bornhald doesn't fit that description.
Graendal's Old Man--In [TFOH: Prologue, The First Sparks Fall, 26], when Graendal Gates in to the Forsaken tea party, a "rumpled old man" can be seen in the room whence she came. Perhaps the barrel man is spying on Carridin (Sammael's flunky, at that point) for Graendal. His memory trouble could be explained by Graendal's usual use of un-subtle Compulsion. This, of course, doesn't preclude him from being #1-3, although it isn't likely that Elyas would be keeping company w/ Graendal.
Somebody associated with Carridin's late family-- he might just be some old family retainer or even a relative who escaped the Myrddraal and came looking for Carridin to exact vengeance for what he had done to the family. How he found out that Carridin is responsible is another question. (Maybe he looked for the only surviving family member.)
Old Cully-- One of the local DFs is a murderous old beggar named Old Cully, and it's been suggested that this Old Cully and the barrel man are one and the same. This is not possible. Carridin knows Old Cully by sight, yet when he sees the barrel man in [ACOS: 15, Insects, 286] standing next to Mat, he doesn't recognise him. Another reason why the barrel man can't be Old Cully: Carridin describes Old Cully as having one eye and no teeth [ACOS: 15, Insects, 284]. But when Mat sees the barrel guy in [ACOS: 14, White Plumes, 282]: "...he grinned, showing gaps in his teeth". There is no mention of the barrel guy missing an eye, either.

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