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1.1.7: The Death of Asmodean (Who killed JoaR?)

[Karl-Johan Noren, Kevin Bartlett, P. Korda]


[Asmodean] pulled open a small door, intending to find his way to the pantry. There should be some decent wine. One step, and he stopped, the blood draining from his face. "You? No!" The word still hung in the air when death took him. [TFOH: 56, Glowing Embers, 682]

Note: Tons of thanks to Karl-Johan Noren and Kevin Bartlett, whose comprehensive analyses of Asmodean's death I plundered in order to give this section the thoroughness it deserves. Their original pages are linked from the Wheel of Time Index (See section 0.8).

Did Asmodean really die at the end of TFOH? Did Moridin ("death") take him?

Yes, he's dead. No, Moridin did not kidnap him. First of all, RJ clearly takes this series too seriously to use such a dastardly pun. Secondly, RJ told Yancy Davis at a post-POD signing in Northern Virginia that Asmodean is "road kill." "He also used the line, 'He's a cat that tried to cross the tracks and didn't quite make it.' Also, when I said, 'so he won't be back' he responded, 'No, he will not be coming back.'" [Yancy Davis] Third, Aaron Bergman asked this question at a post-POD book-signing in New York: "In particular, I asked whether "death" was just a pun on "Moridin". He said "oh, god no" quite disgustedly." Thankfully, that's the end of that theory.

General Considerations

Now that that's out of the way, let's get on to serious discussion. First, we will consider what the general requirements are for Asmodean's murderer. Second, we will round up all the usual suspects (and some unusual ones). Then, we will examine all the general requirements in detail, and see if we can draw any conclusions from them. Next, we will eliminate suspects who couldn't possibly have done it, and those who theoretically could have done it, but who probably didn't. Finally, we will examine the cases for and against the remaining suspects.

Requirements which must be satisfied by the murderer:

  1. Means: be able to kill Asmo (a channeller) near-instantaneously
  2. Motive: have a motive
  3. Opportunity: be able to be in the Caemlyn palace at the time of the murder
  4. Be a person who Asmodean recognised, who he didn't expect to see, and of whom he was terrified
  5. Be able to dispose of the body
  6. Must know Asmodean's fate
  7. There must be a reason why it's kept a secret, by the author and the killer
  8. Be "obvious" from the instant he died (and we use the term loosely.)

Suspects (overly-complete list):

Now, on to discussion of particular requirements. We'll start off with the classic three requirements for solving any murder mystery: means, motive, and opportunity. Then, we'll consider other requirements for the particular "case" at hand.

Means: How was he killed?

Any good murder investigation begins with determining how the victim died. We are at a slight disadvantage, because there is no body to examine. The possible murder weapons are: channelling, a gholam (which, from another POV, can also be considered a suspect), the Shadar Logoth dagger, and some purely physical means, such as a knife or sword.

What we do have is a (very short) description of his death: "the word still hung in the air when death took him." This indicates that he died very quickly. He did not get a chance to even try to run away or defend himself, even with the OP. Remember, channelling is fast: Rand plucks daggers and spears out of thin air. We know that a Warder vs a Fade is usually an even fight, but the Fade is dead meat against even the weakest channeller (except possibly Sorilea). Because of this, it seems unlikely that he was killed by purely physical means. The Shadar Logoth dagger poses the same difficulty, to some degree, although unlike a normal dagger, a victim doesn't have a chance to get away once he's been touched by it. Since gholam are super-duper fast and OP-resistant, this constraint doesn't necessarily apply if one of them was the assailant.

The Shadar Logoth dagger has another problem. Once a person's been cut by it, they don't die instantaneously. There is enough time for the stabbed one to gasp, fall to the ground, writhe around a bit, and finally die once the Mashadar-taint spreads through his body. See the scene in TFOH where Fain kills the Accepted [TFoH: 19, Memories, 259], and the part in TGH where Mat kills the Seanchan guy [TGH: 45, Blademaster, 538]. While the latter seems to die much faster than the Accepted, he still does some writhing in agony which is not consistent with the quickness of Asmodean's death.

Since, as discussed below, it is unlikely that he was killed by a gholam, the most probable murder weapon is channelling. The absence of a body lends more credence to the idea that the killer was a channeller, and that channelling was used in the murder (see below). The personalities of the Forsaken (the channelling suspects) lead us to believe that they wouldn't use conventional means to kill a person; they'd channel. Furthermore, since, of the channelling suspects, only Ishy/Moridin prefers the TP over the OP, the most likely murder weapon is the One Power.

Was Asmodean balefired?

This is definitely a possibility. Certainly, any channeller (read Forsaken) who could have killed Asmo could have wanted to ensure that his thread was burned out of the Pattern.

When Demandred visits the DO in [LOC: Prologue, The First Message, 13-16], the DO lumps Asmodean in with Rahvin as having "died the final death." In Rahvin's case, this means he was balefired, and the DO cannot "step outside of time" to recycle him. Of course, there are other ways in which Asmo could have died with no possibility of recycling. For one thing, the DO may have the power to recycle Asmo, but chooses not to, because he was a traitor. Also, remember that Rand severed Asmo's link to the DO, and thus the DO might not have had the power to save Asmo's soul even if he'd wanted to.

Another point in favor of the balefire idea is the similarity between RJ's description of Asmo's death and that of Be'lal in [TDR: 55, What is Written in Prophecy, 557]:

Moiraine had not stopped or slowed while he spoke. She was no more than thirty paces from him when he moved his hand, and she raised both of hers as well.

There was an instant of surprise on the Forsaken's face, and he had time to scream `No!' Then a bar of white fire hotter than the sun shot from the Aes Sedai's hands, a glaring rod that banished all shadows. Before it, Be'lal became a shape of shimmering motes, specks dancing in the light for less than a heartbeat, flecks consumed before his cry faded.

In particular, note the similarity between "flecks consumed before his cry faded" with "the word still hung in the air when death took him." This is certainly suggestive.

If Asmodean was killed by channelling, why didn't anybody sense it?

A common argument against the idea that Asmo was killed by channelling is that, if it was a man, Rand would have sensed the channelling, and if it was a woman, Rand or Aviendha would have sensed it. This isn't really a valid objection.

The range at which channelling can be sensed seems to depend on many different things: proximity, amount of OP being channelled, how much attention the senser is paying, the strength and experience of the senser, and any number of other variables. (See section 2.3.5 for further analysis.) In the case of Asmodean's death, we have many unknowns. We don't know how far he was from Rand and Avi when he died. He'd been walking through the palace, thinking about his situation, and there is no indication of how far he walked before opening that fateful door. It is entirely possible that he was too far away for the channelling to be detected by Rand and/or Aviendha, who were both distracted by other business. We don't know what form of channelling was used to kill him (if channelling it was)-- balefire, fireballs, inverse healing, or something we don't know about, or how easy any of those things are to sense at a distance. There are too many unknowns and uncertainties to eliminate either half of the OP as the murder weapon. Furthermore, while most of the Forsaken don't choose to use the TP as a matter of course, any of them could have received the DO's permission to use it for this assassination, especially if the deed was done at the DO's direct order. As we know, the TP cannot be sensed by anybody.

Motive: "When I know why, I'll know who."

The question of why Asmo was killed is perhaps the most complicated issue related to his death. Indeed, as the saying goes, if we knew why he was murdered, we could very likely figure out who did it. Here are the possible motives:

  1. Ordered assassination from the DO, as punishment for treachery. All the Forsaken, Slayer, and the different random minions could be acting under this scenario.
  2. Enterprising person, deciding to kill Asmodean on their own accord, in accordance with some unknown (by us) plan. This requires that the murderer has gained knowledge that Jasin Natael really is Asmodean, in effect leaving only the Forsaken as possible killers.
  3. Asmodean stumbled upon his murderer by chance, i.e. the murderer was in Caemlyn and the Palace for an entirely different reason and eliminated Asmo because he discovered him/her.
  4. Ordered assassination, in order to allow Demandred to appear as Taim. This, of course, only works if the Taimandred theory is true. (See Section 1.1.6.)
  5. Plot to cause confusion for Rand by killing his minions.

Note that 1, 4 and 5 can all be classified under "ordered by the DO," and 5 could also be a special case of "personal enterprise." Generally, 1, 2, 4, and 5 all involve premeditation, while 3 is just a crime of opportunity.

Any of the Forsaken could have acted under any of these motives. A random minion or Slayer would have been acting under orders, either from a Forsaken, or the DO. Fain could only have been acting under 3 or 5. We will now discuss the various motives:

Ordered assassination, as punishment for treachery

Now, it makes perfect sense that the DO and the various Forsaken would want to punish Asmodean for going over to Rand's side. However, if this was the motive for the murder, several things don't add up. In general, people who betray the cause of the Shadow are killed in very visible, painful, messy ways, in order to send a message to others who might consider giving up the Dark Side. Examples of this are Amico and Joiya in TSR, and Ispan in TPOD. Asmodean's remains were not left behind as a lesson. Furthermore, he was killed quickly, with none of the gruesome torture experienced by other failures. The only way the method of the murder makes sense for it as a punishment is if it was done with balefire-- more than just dying, his thread would have been burned out of the pattern totally. This still doesn't make perfect sense, because if it was punishment why wasn't the fact that he was balefired shared with the other Forsaken, as a warning?

Timing

With this motive, we must also address the issue of timing. Why was Asmodean killed when he was? Given that Asmodean had been "on Rand's side" for at least two months when he was killed, the question of timing must be considered, at least if the murderer is one of the Forsaken. Couldn't he have been killed far earlier? It could be argued that because Asmodean hadn't spent much time in Caemlyn (less than one day) before he was murdered, the murderer wasn't working under a carefully rehearsed plan, but acting more on a sudden opportunity. However, any Forsaken who had set out to kill Asmo would have gone to Cairhien, found out about Rand's raid, and Traveled to Caemlyn.

If Asmodean was killed as punishment, why did the DO (or somebody speaking for it) wait so long to give the order? It possible that changing circumstances forced the DO or a Forsaken to act.

From the DO's or the Forsaken's point of view, the two big events were Lanfear's disappearance and Rahvin's death. The killing of Asmodean is likely connected with one or both of these events. Another possibility is that Asmodean was killed in order to facilitate putting up Demandred as Taim in LoC, something that would have been hard or impossible to do with Asmodean still alive. (This is discussed separately, below.) Yet another possibility is that Asmo's death heralds Moridin's resurrection.

Personal Enterprise

Perhaps Asmodean was killed by somebody who had been planning it for a while, and had held off because he was a pet project of Lanfear's. When Lanfear died/vanished, whoever it was took the opportunity to remove him. (Problem with this: Lanfear claimed to her fellow Chosen that Asmo had gone over to Rand entirely of his own free will, not due to any scheme of hers.) Alternatively, the killer could have had some plan which required Asmodean's removal, and done so. This raises the question of why did they kill him when they did, rather than earlier? (See the discussion of timing, above.)

Accidental Discovery

One possibility is that Asm was not the specific target of the killer; he was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. Perhaps the killer was/is spying/plotting/etc from within the court of the Dragon Reborn. Asmodean bumped into him on his way to the wine closet, recognized him, and got killed to protect his secret. Quoting from the relevant passage: "He pulled open a small door, intending to find his way to the pantry. There should be some decent wine." Then we have, "You? No!" He was going to look for wine. He probably opened a door to an empty storeroom or hallway. It was not a wine pantry. He hadn't found it yet. If you reread the passage yourself, it seems that it may have even been an accident he ran into his killer (i.e. the killer wasn't planning on it, but since Asmodean saw him...). This motive fits well with the body being removed/destroyed. If the killing was for punishment, it would have made more sense for the body to be left, and the death widely publicized, to set an example.

So how could the body being discovered disclose something about the killer (to the other characters)? There are 3 possibilities. 1) the killer is part of Rand's entourage, and a dead Asmo could make people suspicious that there was a traitor in the ranks. 2) there is a hole in Rand's security, and a dead Asm would inspire people to find it and patch it up. 3) the killer is hiding (not necessarily only from Rand-- could also be from the Forsaken) and a dead body could start folks thinking the killer was active.

Tie-in to Taimandred

If Taim is Demandred, there is a very good, concrete motive for Asmodean to be killed. Namely, Asmodean could have recognised Demandred--by looks, or personality, or strength in the Power--and betrayed him to Rand. In order for Taim to work his way into Rand's organization, Asmodean had to be eliminated.

One might object that Demandred was not informed of the supposed plan to kill Asmodean on his behalf. However, this is not a problem. Demandred wasn't even told about the plans the DO had for him until after Asmodean was killed. And if the plan was to play Taim, he had one month between being informed of the plan and his appearance on Rand's doorstep.

Simple plot to cause confusion

The killer may have killed Asmo as part of a plot to annoy or confuse Rand. The problem with this is that there are many better targets for a person with that motive. Why not go after somebody Rand actually cares about, like Mat, Avi, or Egwene? The only way this motive makes sense at all is if the killer knew Asmo's value to Rand as a teacher. In other words, the killer knew "Jasin Natal" was really Asmodean. The only suspects who would know that would be the Forsaken, and they all have much better motives than causing confusion.

Opportunity

Needless to say, the murderer either was already in Caemlyn when Rand made his surprise raid, or had a way to get there at will. Furthermore, the killer must have been able to get into the Palace (and out again, with the body-- see below). Now, any of the Forsaken could have done that easily, by Traveling. Shaidar Haran could have used the shadow-travel trick to get there. Neither Fain nor Slayer were known to be in Caemlyn at the time. In Fain's case, it is known that he was in Tar Valon (some long way from Caemlyn) about 25 days before Asm's death. It's not that likely that he could have made it in that time by conventional travel, although he could have used the Ways; there are known Waygates in both TV and Caemlyn. Since Slayer's been unaccounted for for some time, he too could have been in Caemlyn, although there is no real reason to think he was. There is a further problem with Fain and Slayer: if they'd had any actual plan to kill Asmo, they wouldn't have been in Caemlyn; they'd have been in Cairhien. The Caemlyn attack was a snap decision on Rand's part, and could not have been expected by ANY of the suspects. Thus, if the murderer went to the Caemlyn palace with the purpose of killing Asmodean, he/she must have some method of speedy traveling, such as Traveling.

"Then I saw her face..." The Recognition Factor

Recognised by and terrified Asm: again, any FS would be recognised. The extreme reaction implies it was somebody he never expected to see, like somebody he thought was dead. However, since Asmo was a weaselly coward, it's conceivable that any FS would terrify him, especially if he/she was about to kill him. However, point is raised why a FS would be walking around Rand's stronghold w/o a disguise. If the killer dropped disguise to show Asm who was killing him, why bother? Dramatic effect?

"Oh, I ain't got no bodeeee."--Where is it?

No body was left behind at the murder scene. This is evidenced by the fact that nobody (except the killer, duh) seems to know he's dead. Rand certainly doesn't. He thinks Asmo ran away: "If they discovered that he had held one of the Forsaken prisoner and allowed him to escape... He would deal with Asmodean himself if the man ever turned up again." [LOC: 3, A Woman's Eyes, 92] In TPOD, Rand still thinks Asmo's alive; he initially thinks that the attack at the end is Asmodean and/or Demandred [TPOD, 29, A Cup of Sleep, 565]. From this, we can conclude that he was either killed in such a way that no remains were left, or that the body was removed in order to hide the murder.

Either way, this points to a channeller being the killer. Channelling is the only way we know of to kill a person while leaving no remains at all. Even the Shadar Logoth dagger leaves something. If there were remains, a channeller would have had no problem removing them, via a gateway. A nonchanneller would have had more than a little difficulty walking out of the Royal Palace carrying the corpse of the Lord Dragon's gleeman.

In fact, we should ask why the body (if there was one) was removed at all. The only possible reason for the corpse to be removed would be to hide the fact that the killer was around. For many of the killers, the supposed motives would have been better served by leaving a recognizable body behind. We've seen that those who betray the Dark are generally killed in ways that serve as examples to others (e.g. Joiya and Amico in TSR, Ispan in POD). If the goal was simply to terrify Rand, leaving the body behind would have done a better job than removing it. The "cover-for-Taimandred" motive does give a possible reason for removing the body-- a dead Asmo might make Rand suspicious.

Knowledge of Asmo's fate

Needless to say, the person who killed him must know that he's dead. This condition can be used to eliminate quite a few suspects. Any character whose thoughts indicate that he/she thinks Asmo may still be alive can't be the killer. Likewise for any character who expresses ignorance of his fate in a situation where she/he wouldn't lie.

Secrecy: Why?

Despite RJ's comments to the contrary, it is not at all obvious who did the dirty deed. One question to ask ourselves is, "WHY is RJ keeping it a secret?" The lack of action on this front in LOC, ACOS, and TPOD pretty much demonstrates that the murder in and of itself is NOT a major plot thread, so there is no point in keeping it secret for the sake of keeping the reader in suspense. So, why is RJ keeping it secret?

One answer is that Asmo's killing is itself a clue to something else that is going on, which we don't know about yet. This could be the return of Lanfear, or the Taimandred idea.

We are not the only ones ignorant of the culprit. All of the characters (except one, obviously) are also ignorant of whodunnit (if they're Forsaken), or of what actually happened (if they're Good Guys or rank-and-file DFs). So, whoever killed Asm must have a reason for hiding it. After all, it's not like anybody would condemn them for punishing a traitor. For any of the Forsaken, this could be as simple as keeping the other Forsaken on their toes by causing uncertainty.

Obvious to the most casual observer: Say what?

RJ has repeatedly said that we should be able to figure out who the killer is. In fact, at a post-TPOD signing in NYC, he talked to Aaron Bergman about this:

I asked about Asmodean again. He said that yes, we should be able to figure it out the instant he died. He said that he thinks it's obvious now and we should definitely be able to figure it out by the end of [TPOD].-- A. Bergman, report from NYC book signing, 20 October 1998.
Well, RJ is obviously using the same definition of "obvious" that physics professors are wont to use. That is, it's obvious if you know the answer, and know which information is useful and which is irrelevant. It isn't "obvious" in the usual meaning of the word. Note that RJ "also claims that very, very few of the fan letters he gets are correct about [who killed Asmo]." [Post-TPOD signing, Northern Virginia, 21 November, 1998, report by John Novak.] This clearly shows that RJ's idea of "obvious" and his readers' idea of "obvious" don't really mix, do they?

However, this statement by RJ is useful in eliminating possibilities. Not even RJ could stretch "being able to figure it out the instant he died" to encompass people or things we didn't know a thing about before the killing, such as Shaidar Haran, Mesaana, or gholam.

Note that RJ's comment also implies that something in POD should clarify the issue. The only thing which is applicable to any of the suspects is the appearance of Cyndane, which does nothing but throw more fuel on the fire in the Lanfear vs. Graendal debate (see below). It DOES let us argue even more strongly against some of the less-likely suspects like Slayer or Fain, who were largely irrelevant to events in POD. (Fain is mentioned in passing, but nothing which connects him to Asmodean.)

Elimination of suspects:

Which suspects can be eliminated beyond any loony shadow of a doubt?

Demandred

From [LoC: Prologue, The First Message, 15-16], we see that Demandred doesn't know what happened to Asmodean: "Lanfear has vanished without a trace, just as Asmodean did." Hence, Demandred didn't kill him. (Dem. would have no reason to lie about such a thing, and it is doubtful whether he _could_ lie outright to the DO, under those circumstances (bathing in the DO's presence at SG.)

Semirhage

In [LOC: 6, Threads Woven of Shadow, 141], Semirhage thinks to herself, "Asmodean. A traitor, and so doomed but he really had vanished..." and later, "If the Great Lord moved her here secretly, might he not be moving Moghedien or Lanfear, or even Asmodean?" This seems to imply that Semirhage doesn't know that Asmodean is dead, and thus, she couldn't have killed him.

Moghedien

She was Nynaeve's prisoner in Salidar-- either forkroot-drugged, or bound by the a'dam, when Asmo was killed. Hence, she couldn't have been in Caemlyn.

Aran'gar, Osan'gar

They weren't recycled until the beginning of LOC, and thus were busy being dead when Asmo was killed.

Which suspects can be eliminated beyond reasonable doubt?

Mesaana

Mesaana visited the Pit of Doom twice in the period between Asmodean's death and her appearance in LoC, but with the DO never appearing. If she had killed Asmodean, wouldn't she have made some sort of report to the DO, especially since the DO approved of the murder? Also, in conversation with Semirhage, she has expressed doubts about whether Asmodean is really dead [LoC: 6, Threads Woven of Shadow, 143]: "More troubling were the Chosen who had vanished. Demandred insisted they must be dead, but she [Semirhage] and Mesaana were not so sure". She doesn't mention Asmo specifically, and so it is possible that she's only referring to Lanfear and Moggy. However, while it's not conclusive, it is circumstantial evidence against Mesaana being the murderer.

Furthermore, prior to LOC, we had not heard or seen a single thing about Mesaana. Thus, she fails the "obviosity" test--there is no way we could even suspect her from the instant he died.

Slayer

Conceivably, he could have reached Caemlyn from the Two Rivers in time, but his motive would have had to be a direct order from a DO or a Forsaken, and how would he have known to go to Caemlyn? Not to mention, one would think that the Royal Palace in Caemlyn would be the last place on earth "Lord Luc" would show his face. Furthermore, why would the DO send him towards a possible confrontation with a former Forsaken and Rand? As discussed above, any non-channeller would have great trouble harming a channeller if he or she was discovered first. (Slayer cannot channel-- See Section 1.4.3.) Plus, he'd have had to sneak the body away with no OP help. He was badly hurt in TSR, and it's not certain that he would be in any condition to sneak into the Royal Palace, kill a guy, and sneak back out with the body.

Slayer also fails the "obvious" test. He doesn't appear in TFOH at all (before Asmo's death, at least), nor does he appear in LOC, ACOS, or TPOD. There is no particular reason to suspect him, and quite a few reasons not to.

Shaidar Haran

First, there is no reason to think that Asmo would recognize the Superfade. It is a possibility that Shaidar Haran told Asmodean in his dreams that it would come after him, but that would almost require that Ishamael was resurrected as SH, which we know not to be the case (unless you want to get really loony and say that Moridin is Shaidar Haran). We say this since Myrddraal don't dream. Second, his motive would have had to have been a directive from the DO, and the missing body is not consistent with that. He could have gotten to the Palace quickly, using the Fade Shadow-Travel trick, and destroyed the body using the "black fire" trick he used to burn the spear in [ACOS: 40, Spears, 637] (although he'd have no motive for destroying the body-- quite the opposite). However, it doesn't seem likely that a Fade would be wandering around the Palace in broad daylight. He'd hardly be inconspicuous. Again, this suspect fails the "obvious" criterion, because we didn't even know he existed before LOC came out.

Sammael

We are given very few hints in Sammael's thoughts in LOC and ACOS, and the issue is made even muddier by the game of deception he plays with Graendal. But in [LoC, 6, Threads Woven of Shadow, 133] we have: "Rumors! Lanfear has been aiding al'Thor since the beginning, if you [Graendal] ask me. I would have had his head in the Stone of Tear except that someone sent Myrddraal and Trollocs to save him! That was Lanfear; I am certain. I'm done with her. The next time I see her, I'll kill her! And why would he kill Asmodean? I would if I could find him, but he has gone over to al'Thor. He's teaching him!" This is in a Sammael POV section. He is also trembling with anger, which makes it quite unlikely he's feigning ignorance of Asmo's fate. Thus, it's unlikely that Sammael did the deed.

Gholam

The only point in favor of this idea is that Asmo probably would have recognised a gholam, and been scared of it. However, there are more problems with this idea than there are conveniences. Firstly, it would have to have been sent by a Forsaken, which means we have to look among them anyway. Secondly, we've seen how gholam kill (Herid Fel), and it is way messier than the quick, clean way Asmo died. Since we didn't know about gholam before LOC, the gholam-as-killer theory fails the "obviosity" requirement. There's also the question of whether Asmo would call a gholam "you."

Padan Fain

The basic argument for Fain as the killer is this: He could have been in Caemlyn at the time (via the Ways, if nothing else). He would want to kill any Forsaken because they would interfere with his plans to be Rand's personal hell. However, that presupposes that Fain knew Jasin Natal was a Forsaken, which seems a very unlikely thing for Fain to know, given that he'd never seen Asmo/Natal before supposedly killing him. An alternative motive which has been proposed is that Fain killed Natal because he was trying to cause confusion and stress for Rand by disappearing a member of his retinue. However, this does not fit in with everything else we've seen of Fain's MO, which has mainly involved ingratiating himself with highly-placed people and planting the seeds of Mashadar in their minds. Plus, killing Rand's gleeman and splitting doesn't really make for much of a dastardly plot to undermine Rand's confidence. It would have been much more effective for Fain to try to kill somebody closer to Rand--one of his friends, or even one of his Maiden bodyguards. The "mistake" motive doesn't work for Fain, because we'd have to have a reason for Fain to be in the Palace, and there is zero evidence that he was doing anything in the palace--no reference to anything of the sort in TFOH, LOC, ACOS, or TPOD.

Furthermore, as we discussed in the "means" section, Fain would have had to have killed Asmo with the dagger, and that isn't consistent with the way Asmo died, or the lack of a body.

Round up the usual suspects: the viable possibilities

Having eliminated most of the suspects, either by showing that they couldn't possibly have done it, or by showing that there are many arguments against their guilt and only slim evidence for it, we can settle down to the three most likely suspects: Graendal, Lanfear, and Ishamael/Moridin. (Note: most of the evidence discussed centers on Graendal and Lanfear. I've included Moridin in the list of possible suspects mainly because we don't know enough to really eliminate him. The two front-runners for Asmo-killer are Lanfear and Graendal.)

Ishamael/Moridin

TPOD makes it clear that Moridin is Ishamael recycled. At this point, we don't know when he was created, and as far as we know, his first step in regaining control over the Shadow forces was killing Asmodean. In any case, there isn't really that much to discuss about him. He definitely satisfies means, motive, and opportunity (provided he wasn't dead at the time). He could have made himself recognised to Asmodean by using a OP disguise, although why would he bother? Body disposal wouldn't be a problem, and we have no way to know if he knows Asmo's fate (although even if he didn't kill him, it's likely that Mr. Nae'blis knows exactly what happened to the fellow). It would make sense for it to be a secret, since Moridin's existence and identity have been unknown by us and by the other Forsaken. Obviosity is not obvious, but it's within the realm of twisted possibility (Moridin is Ishy, who has come back from the "dead" twice before, so we might suspect he did so again).

On the other hand, there is absolutely no evidence in favor of him having done it, either. Note that RJ's rejection of the "pun" theory could encompass Moridin killing Asmo, as well as kidnapping him.

Lanfear

Up until the appearance of Cyndane in TPOD, Lanfear looked like a very good suspect. The case against her is very strong. She's a channeller, so she had the means to kill him, the ability to enter and leave the Palace undetected, and a way to dispose of the body. Since Asmo had just seen her "die" earlier in the day, he would certainly have been shocked and terrified to see her strolling around the Palace.

Lanfear's Motive

Lanfear also had the strongest motive to kill Asmo. Lanfear gave Asmo to Rand "to teach him," knowing that Asmo was about the worst (and hence the safest) Forsaken you could pick as a teacher. But he was also the one who she could be sure would react the way she wanted him to once she shielded him. It would seem that she wasn't too interested in giving Rand all the secrets of the AoL. More likely, she just didn't want him gentling or killing himself because of his ignorance (see her reaction when he draws saidin through the sa'angreal in TGH-- though that could simply be fear for her own life). Here's Asmo's take on it:
"Do you think Lanfear really intended me to teach you everything? If she had wanted that, she would have contrived to stay close so she could link us. She wants you to live, Lews Therin, but this time she means to be stronger than you." [TFOH: 3, Pale Shadows, 75].

When she confronted Rand at the docks, it is unlikely that she knew he had an angreal. Although she would certainly be hard pressed to shield him alone, it should have been no problem with an angreal, especially since he is untrained in her opinion, despite whatever he might have gleaned from Asmo. After she picked up the angreal, she attacked Rand, and he resisted. She increased her attempts to shield and hurt Rand, probably to her limit even with the angreal. But Rand (with his own angreal) held his ground. He even believed "He could end it, finish her. He could call down lightning, or wrap her in the fire she herself had used to kill..." [TFOH, 52, Choices, 631]. If Lanfear did not know that he had an angreal (she probably didn't), then she would have taken this as a very bad sign for her. Knowing that Asmodean was still "teaching" him stuff, and that she was the one who put him there, it is very likely that it would be a high priority to remove him, if Rand can foil even her strongest attempts to shield him.

Furthermore, she would have blamed Asmodean's teaching for her defeat and humiliation, and thus she'd have wanted to get revenge. She's that type of gal.

She SAID she was going to kill him

In TSR, in the Stone of Tear, Lanfear comes to Rand as Selene, and reveals herself as a Forsaken . During that conversation, she proposes that Rand allow a male Forsaken to become his teacher. She continues in her old tack of seducing Rand with power (not The Power, just power), by describing how she and he will rule the world once he has knelt to the DO. She describes her entire plan in [TSR: 9, Decisions, 129]:
"Kneel to the Great Lord, and he will set you above all others. He will leave you free to reign as you will, so long as you bend knee to him only once. To acknowledge him. No more than that. He told me this. Asmodean will teach you to wield the Power without it killing you, teach you what you can do with it. Let me help you. We can destroy all the others. The Great Lord will not care. We can destroy all of them, even Asmodean, once he has taught you all you need to know. You and I can rule the world together under the Great Lord, forever." (emphasis mine)
The relevance of this quote to the matter at hand is obvious. All along, Lanfear has been planning to kill Asmodean, after he was done teaching Rand. Obviously, after the encounter at the docks, Lanfear has every reason to believe that Asmodean has taught Rand more than enough, more than she really wanted him to. In fact, if Lanfear did kill Asmodean, then this quote means that it really IS obvious who killed him. His fate corresponds exactly with Lanfear's plans for him.

The "You? No!" evidence, and how it points to Lanfear

It is obvious that Asmodean was indeed terrified of the person he saw. There are many people that Asmo would be afraid of, but it is doubtful that anyone but Lanfear would elicit quite this response from Asmo. Although Asmo may have reason to be afraid of many people, we know that Lanfear is the person he fears the most:
"Even if he manages to convince the others that he has been a prisoner, they would still tear him apart, and he knows it. The weakest dog in the pack often suffers that fate. Besides, I watch his dreams on occasion. He dreams of you triumphing over the Great Lord and putting him up beside you on high. Sometimes he dreams of me." Her smile said those dreams were pleasant for her, but not so for Asmodean. [TFOH, 6, Gateways, 124]
Even though Asmo knows all the Forsaken would rip him to shreds given the chance, the one he has nightmares about is Lanfear.

Furthermore, just before getting whacked, Asmo was just thinking to himself about Lanfear being dead and how glad he was: "He was hardly sorry Lanfear was dead. Rahvin either, but Lanfear especially, for what she had done to him. He would laugh when each of the others died, too, and most for the last." [TFOH, 56, Glowing Embers, 681] Not thirty seconds after these thoughts pass through his mind, he opens the door and sees ... who? And he is shocked/terrified (big surprise). The combination of these things makes it seem likely that Lanfear was indeed the killer. (This scenario also plays into the "obvious" argument.)

"Obviousity" and secrecy

As discussed above, if any suspect can be said to be obviously the killer, from the moment he dies, it's Lanfear. She said she'd kill him, and he was (ironically?) thinking of her right before he died. Furthermore, the fact that his killer is still a secret, three books later, makes sense if Lanfear did it. Knowing that she killed Asmo would be a dead giveaway that she was active.

The big problem

Of course, there has to be a stumbling block. With all the great evidence in favor of Lanfear, there is a correspondingly large problem with her. Namely, as far as we know, she was extremely indisposed at the time of Asmo's death. As in dead. The "new" character Cyndane, introduced in TPOD, is almost certainly Lanfear in a new body (see section 1.2.5). The only way we know of for a person to get into a new body is to be killed and then reincarnated by the Dark One. The most likely time for Lanfear to have died is when she fell through the exploding doorway with Moiraine. If this happened, there is no way she could have been alive to kill Asmodean.

However, there are ways (loony ways) to get around this. First, the new body could have come from the Foxes as the (possibly unintentional) result of some wish. Second, she could have gotten killed sometime after leaving Foxland. See section 1.2.5 for more details.

Another point raised against Cyndane/Lanfear being the assassin is that Asmodean would not have recognised "Cyndane," let alone have been terrified of her. However, this objection can be applied to any of the channelling suspects. Lanfear would certainly want Asmo to know who was killing him, even if she wasn't her old self. Thus, she could have used a OP disguise to make "Cyndane" look like the old Lanfear. Likewise, any of the other Forsaken would have been wearing a disguise while walking around the Palace. Remember, this was right after Rand balefired one of their number with extreme prejudice. All of the Forsaken known to be alive at that time (Graendal, Sammael, Demandred, Semirhage, Mesaana) are cautious enough to not go trouncing through the Palace undisguised. Thus, in order for Asmo to recognise one of them as the killer, the killer would have had to remove her/his disguise. This is essentially the same as Lanfear/Cyndane donning a disguise to freak him out. (Also note that Lanfear is crazy enough to go walking around the Palace in a recognizable form.)

Graendal

Finally, we are left with Graendal. Graendal has some evidence working for her. For one thing, she has tried to assure Sammael that Asmodean is dead, which makes her one of the only Forsaken to express a belief that Asmodean was toasted.
"`You [Sammael] know as much as I do,' Graendal said blithely, pausing for a sip from her goblet. `Myself, I think Lews Therin killed them [Asmodean, Lanfear, Moghedien]. [...] There are rumors out of Cairhien about Lanfear dying at Lews Therin's hands the same day he killed Rahvin.'" [LoC, 6, Threads Woven of Shadow, 133] (Sammael PoV)

Graendal says: "So many of us has died confronting him. [...] And Lanfear and Asmodean, whatever you believe. Possibly Moghedien" [LoC, 6, Threads Woven of Shadow, 134]

"`Asmodean and Lanfear are dead, and I [Graendal] am sure Moghedien must be, too.' She was surprised to hear her own voice, hoarse and unsteady." [LoC, 23, To Understand a Message, 348] (Graendal PoV)

On the other hand, it should be noted that Graendal expresses as much certainty about Lanfear's demise as Asmodean's, and she sure didn't kill Lanfear. Her statements that Asmo must be dead could either be simple opinion, or she could have found out the same way that Demandred did-- from the DO.

In fact, we know that Graendal has visited the DO:

"Only she [Graendal] herself knew that she had made her own journey to Shayol Ghul and down to the lake of fire. Only she knew that the Great Lord had all but promised to name her Nae'blis" [LoC, Threads Woven of Shadow, 138]
This memory includes no mention of Shaidar Haran, and furthermore, when SH appears to Graendal in [TPOD, 12, New Alliances, 266], she is not familiar with him. Thus, we know that SH was not present when Graendal made this trip to the Pit of Doom, and therefore, this trip might have occurred before the Super-Fade appeared. We first saw SH at the start of LOC, so Graendal's visit could have been before Asmodean's death. The idea is that the DO may have used the reward of Nae'blis to motivate Graendal to kill Asmo.

There are other points in favor of Graendal being the killer. She's cautious and will thus probably plan well. She's also somewhat expendable. Sammael's required to fix Rand's attention, Demandred is needed to act as Taim. Mesaana is in too good a position (the White Tower) to endanger, and there are indications that Semirhage is working directly on the DO's order in another matter.

The strongest argument in favor of Graendal, though, is that she is the only suspect without any major points against her. The only requirements which she seems to fail are 7 and 8. Namely, there is no reason for RJ to have kept it a secret for over five years, and there is no way Graendal is obviously the killer-- the case in her favor is mostly a process of elimination over the three books following TFOH.

One thing which doesn't quite fit in with Graendal as the murderer is the bit in [TPOD, 12, New Alliances, 266] when SH talks to her. He tells her, "The Great Lord thought you might not take [Moggy's and Cyndane's] word, Graendal. The time when you could go your own way has passed." This implies that Graendal HAS been going her own way, not rubbing out fellow Forsaken at the DO's order. This leaves personal initiative and accidental meeting as the only motives for her to kill Asmo. From what we've seen of Graendal, she seems to be pretty happy to stay entrenched in Arad Doman. (Note, however, that she has ventured onto Rand's turf at least once, when she had sufficiently strong motivation. After Rand took Illion, she went there to remove evidence which would tie her to Sammael's schemes. [TPOD: 12, New Alliances, 262])

An Issue of Fish

It has been suggested that the Graendal was secretly helping Rahvin out during his fight with Rand at the end of TFOH, and that indicates that she was in Caemlyn at the time of Asmo's sorry demise. What is the basis for this supposition?

The fish.

What fish? The fish in TAR which attack Rand. After Rahvin is BFed, Rand still has fish-bites which Nynaeve must heal [TFOH: 55, The Threads Burn, 673]. Because BF erases somebody backwards, and Rahvin was erased back to before he entered TAR, the bites would have been un-created if Rahvin had made the fish. Thus, somebody else must have made the fish. This third party could have been Graendal.

However, this is not how Balefire works in TAR. Joel Gilmore went to see RJ at a book signing in Australia (21 September, 1999), and here's what he found out:

I got an answer to the Rahvin/balefire/TAR question - when someone is bfed, the constructs they make in TAR do not disappear, but instead fade away slowly over time. There are lots of wierd effects associated with TAR and bf, such as the way the world flickers after bf used. I asked him just generally about it, and then he jumped straight in, gave the answer, then used the Rand and the fish example.
So, the fish were created by Rahvin, and we are left without even that thin bit of evidence that Graendal was anywhere near Caemlyn when Asmodean was whacked.

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